Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2014 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts

Boxes

  • Table B1: Lags between Cycle Turning Points
Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since
previous
Statement
Over
the past
year
Bulk commodities −14 −24
– Iron ore −14 −23
– Coking coal −14 −30
– Thermal coal −11 −19
Rural 5 −6
Base metals −1 −9
Gold 5 −17
Brent oil(b) −1 −0
RBA ICP −3 −12
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities −6 −16

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA

Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most
recent
change
Cumulative change
in current phase(a) Basis points
Euro area 0.25 Nov 13 −125
Japan(b) na   na  
United States 0.125 Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 Aug 13 −225
Brazil 11.00 Apr 14 375
Canada 1.00 Sep 10 75
Chile 4.00 Nov 14 −125
China(b) na   na  
India 8.00 Jan 14 75
Indonesia 7.50 Nov 13 175
Israel 0.75 Feb 14 −250
Malaysia 3.00 May 11 100
Mexico 3.50 Oct 13 −475
New Zealand 3.00 Apr 14 50
Norway 1.50 Mar 12 −75
Russia 7.50 Apr 14 200
South Africa 5.50 Jan 14 50
South Korea 0.75 May 13 −75
Sweden 0.75 Dec 13 −125
Switzerland 0.00 Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.00 Mar 14 −150
Turkey 10.00 Jan 14 550
United Kingdom 0.50 Mar 09 −525
Current monthly
asset purchases
Most recent
change
Assets on balance sheet
Per cent of GDP
United States $45 billion   Apr 14 25.1
Japan ¥6 trillion   Apr 13 51.2
United Kingdom 0   Jul 12 24.3

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base; China does not have an official policy rate

Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks

Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
United States
– S&P 500 30 2
Euro area
– STOXX 20 2
United Kingdom
– FTSE 14 1
Japan
– Nikkei 57 −14
Canada
– TSE 300 10 8
Australia
– ASX 200 15 2
China
– China A −7 −5
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia 3 −1
– Latin America −7 1
– Emerging Europe −2 −6
– World 23 0

Source: Bloomberg

Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
Chinese renminbi −3 3
Canadian dollar 7 3
New Taiwan dollar 3 1
Swedish krona −1 1
Philippine peso 8 0
South African rand 24 0
Mexican peso 1 −1
Thai baht 7 −1
Singapore dollar 3 −1
Malaysian ringgit 7 −1
European euro −4 −1
Swiss franc −3 −2
UK pound sterling −2 −2
South Korean won −1 −3
Indian rupee 13 −3
Japanese yen 21 −3
Australian dollar 17 −4
Indonesian rupiah 26 −5
New Zealand dollar 1 −5
Brazilian real 15 −6
TWI 3 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change: Level
End April 2013 to
end December 2013
2014 to date US$ equivalent (billions)
Most recent observation
China 8 3 3,948
Russia −1 −6 426
Brazil −5 2 356
South Korea 6 2 344
India 2 5 282
Thailand −6 0 158
Turkey −3 −2 107
Indonesia −7 6 99
South Africa 1 −1 41
Argentina −25 −10 22
Ukraine −20 −34 12

(a) Data to end March for China, South Africa, South Korea and Thailand; 25 April for India, Russia and Turkey; end April for Argentina, Brazil, Indonesia and Ukraine

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; IMF; RBA; central banks

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over 2013 Since end 2013
Chinese renminbi −17 8
Canadian dollar −8 7
US dollar −14 5
South African rand 6 4
Thai baht −8 4
Singapore dollar −11 3
Malaysian ringgit −8 3
European euro −18 3
Swiss franc −16 3
UK pound sterling −16 2
South Korean won −15 2
Indian rupee −3 1
Japanese yen 4 1
Indonesian rupiah 8 −1
New Zealand dollar −13 −1
TWI –11 4

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
December quarter 2013 Year to December quarter 2013
GDP 0.8 2.8
Domestic final demand 0.1 1.2
– Private demand −0.2 0.3
– Public demand 1.2 4.5
Change in inventories(a) 0.2 −0.3
Gross national expenditure 0.3 0.9
Exports 2.4 6.5
Imports −0.6 −4.6
Nominal GDP 1.6 4.8
Real gross domestic income 0.9 2.4

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to April 2014 3 months to January 2014 Year to April 2014
Australia 1.8 3.8 11.5
Sydney 3.6 3.7 16.8
Melbourne 0.8 5.3 11.7
Brisbane 2.2 1.7 6.6
Perth 0.6 1.5 7.6
Adelaide 2.3 1.7 3.7
Canberra −0.4 0.9 1.3
Regional(a) −0.6 1.3 2.6

(a) Growth to March and December; detached houses only

Sources: RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month ended
December 2013
Three-month ended
March 2014
Year-ended
March 2014
Total credit 1.2 1.2 4.4
– Owner-occupier housing 1.3 1.3 4.9
– Investor housing 2.2 2.1 7.9
– Personal 0.1 −0.3 0.4
– Business 0.6 0.9 2.6
Broad money 1.7 1.9 6.5

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at
7 May 2014
Change since
January 2014
Change since end
October 2011
Per cent Basis points Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 0 −186
– Package variable rate(b) 5.08 0 −195
– Fixed rate(c) 5.20 −9 −131
Personal loans
– Standard variable rate 11.56 0 −85
Small business (variable rates)
– Term loans 7.10 0 −190
– Overdraft 7.97 0 −188
Average rate(d) 6.71 −2 −192
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)
4.58 −2 −245

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discount)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March quarter 2014 December quarter 2013 March quarter 2014 December quarter 2013
Consumer price index 0.6 0.8 2.9 2.7
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.5 0.9
– Tradables 0.7 0.8 2.6 1.0
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)
−0.1 0.5 0.8 −0.1
– Non-tradables 0.4 0.9 3.1 3.7
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.5 0.9 2.6 2.6
Weighted median 0.6 0.9 2.7 2.5
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.4 0.9 2.7 2.6

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2014 Year to December 2015
November
2013
February
2014
May
2014
February
2014
May
2014
Market economists 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.7
Union officials 2.5 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.9

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2013
June
2014
Dec
2014
June
2015
Dec
2015
June
2016
GDP growth 2.8 3 2¼–3¼ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 2.6 3 3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
CPI inflation(b) 2.7 3 2½–3½ 2¼–3¼ 2–3
Underlying inflation(b) 2¼–3¼ 2–3 2–3
Year-average
  2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16
GDP growth 2.4 3 2¼–3¼ 2¼–3¼ 2½–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 71 and Brent crude oil price at US$105 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation for the price of carbon

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Lags between Cycle Turning Points(a)
Average number of quarters lag from turning point in GDP growth, 1998–2013
Hours Vacancies Employment Unemployment rate Wages
Peak +2 +2 +3 +1 +4
Trough +1 +1 +1 +1 +3

(a) Positive figures denote that the peak or trough in the labour market variable lags the peak or trough in activity; peaks and troughs are identified on the basis of the business cycle component of each series, which is extracted by taking the difference between the 7-quarter Henderson trend (which removes short cycles) and the 33-quarter Henderson trend (which removes long cycles); all variables are expressed in quarterly growth rates apart from the unemployment rate, which is expressed in quarterly changes

Sources: ABS; RBA