{"text_format":"3","workbook":"xls","n_sheets":5,"sheets":["Notes","Forecasts","Actuals","Errors","absErrors"],"not_rendered":{"external_links":3,"defined_names":33,"comments":1},"read":"whole","date_system":"1900","formulas":"cached_only"}

{"sheet":"Notes","index":0,"n_rows":23,"n_cols":3,"rows_kept":23,"merged":[[1,0,1,2],[4,0,4,2],[7,0,7,2],[22,0,22,2]],"flags":["formulas_cached_only"]}
["Data Collection"]
["These data are primarily built upon the dataset accompanying Tulip and Wallace (2012) 'Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts', RBA Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2012-07. Those data are in turn the result of efforts from a long series of RBA staff, including Dan Andrews, Andrea Brischetto, Adam Cagliarini, David Norman, Anna Park and Ivan Roberts. "]
[]
["Data Construction"]
["The data include forecasts for different variables made at different times in each quarter. That inconsistency may matter for some research questions. The data sources are noted alongside the data and these sources differ in terms of timing, detail and intended audience.  Before 2000, the source data for GDP forecasts are paper records showing quarterly changes, which provide a limited history that is insufficient to calculate near-term forecasts of year-ended or year-average changes. Accordingly, the forecast data have been spliced with real-time estimates from the database used in Stone and Wardrop (2002) 'Real-time National Accounts Data', RBA Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2002-05. Further details about the data can be found in Appendix B of Tulip and Wallace (2012)."]
[]
["Interpretation of Data"]
["The available information make it very difficult to identify the precise timing of the forecasts with respect to data releases. As such, the data do not precisely distinguish actual outcomes from current quarter forecasts. Rather, the data can be thought of as representing the information set available to the RBA in the current quarter (t), be it an actual outcome, a 'nowcast' based on partial indicators or a forecast. This means that the data point for the current quarter (t) cannot be considered a 'one-step ahead' forecast, as the most recent actual release is unknown; that is, the forecast could be a one-step ahead or a two-step ahead forecast, depending on whether the actual data have been released for the previous quarter (t-1). \n\nDefining actual outcomes or ‘truth’ involves some judgement. The most recently published estimates are easily available, and reflect more information and better methods than earlier estimates. In that sense, they may be closer to ultimate ‘truth’. However, they may not correspond to the series being forecast because definitions change over time. GDP actuals are the fourth-published estimate; released four quarters after the relevant event. The unemployment rate actuals are the RBA estimates as of one quarter after the event. Actuals for inflation reflect recent estimates rather than previous vintages. Further details can be found in Appendix B of Tulip and Wallace (2012)."]
[]
["Data Sources"]
["Abbreviation","Description","Broad timing"]
["BP","Board paper","Prepared during the final month of the quarter"]
["IR","Inflation Report, an internal document that was precursor to the SMP","Middle month of the quarter"]
["JEFG","Joint Economic Forecasting Group","Meeting in the final month of the quarter, following the release of the National Accounts"]
["PDG","Policy Discussion Group","Meeting in the middle month of the quarter, typically after the release of the CPI"]
["SMP","Statement on Monetary Policy","Published in the middle month of the quarter, after the release of the CPI"]
["--","data not available"]
["TM","trimmed mean"]
["WM","weighted median"]
["sa","seasonally adjusted"]
["nsa","not seasonally adjusted"]
[]
["Note: If multiple sources are identified it usually means that a JEFG or PDG forecast profile has been adjusted to be consistent with the SMP and board papers, which provided less detailed forecasts for much of the sample but are considered to be more authoritative."]

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[null,null,"Forecast horizon (quarters from forecast date)"]
[null,null,-12,-11,-10,-9,-8,-7,-6,-5,-4,-3,-2,-1,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10]
["Forecast date",null,"t-12","t-11","t-10","t-9","t-8","t-7","t-6","t-5","t-4","t-3","t-2","t-1","t","t+1","t+2","t+3","t+4","t+5","t+6","t+7","t+8","t+9","t+10"]
["1989-03-01",null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""]
["1989-06-01",null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""]
["1989-09-01",null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""]
["1989-12-01",null,"","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","","",""]
["1990-03-01","JEFG","","","","","","","",{"v":6.7,"d":"6.70"},{"v":6.6,"d":"6.60"},{"v":6.1,"d":"6.10"},{"v":6.1,"d":"6.10"},{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.3,"d":"6.30"},{"v":6.5,"d":"6.50"},{"v":6.7,"d":"6.70"},{"v":7,"d":"7.00"},{"v":7.4,"d":"7.40"},{"v":7.6,"d":"7.60"},"","","","",""]
["1990-06-01","JEFG","","","","","","",{"v":6.8,"d":"6.80"},{"v":6.6,"d":"6.60"},{"v":6.1,"d":"6.10"},{"v":6.1,"d":"6.10"},{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.2,"d":"6.20"},{"v":6.4,"d":"6.40"},{"v":6.6,"d":"6.60"},{"v":7,"d":"7.00"},{"v":7.3,"d":"7.30"},{"v":7.7,"d":"7.70"},"","","","","",""]
["1990-09-01","JEFG","","","","","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","--","","","","","","",""]
["1990-12-01","JEFG","","","","","","","","",{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.2,"d":"6.20"},{"v":6.4,"d":"6.40"},{"v":7.2,"d":"7.20"},{"v":7.8,"d":"7.80"},{"v":9.2,"d":"9.20"},{"v":9.4,"d":"9.40"},{"v":9.7,"d":"9.70"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":10,"d":"10.00"},{"v":10.1,"d":"10.10"},"","","",""]
["1991-03-01","JEFG","","","","","","","",{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.2,"d":"6.20"},{"v":6.5,"d":"6.50"},{"v":7.2,"d":"7.20"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.8,"d":"9.80"},{"v":10.1,"d":"10.10"},{"v":10.2,"d":"10.20"},{"v":10.3,"d":"10.30"},{"v":10.3,"d":"10.30"},"","","","",""]
["1991-06-01","JEFG","","","","","","",{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.2,"d":"6.20"},{"v":6.5,"d":"6.50"},{"v":7.2,"d":"7.20"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.8,"d":"9.80"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":10.8,"d":"10.80"},{"v":10.6,"d":"10.60"},"","","","","",""]
["1991-09-01","JEFG","","","","",{"v":6,"d":"6.00"},{"v":5.9,"d":"5.90"},{"v":6.4,"d":"6.40"},{"v":6.5,"d":"6.50"},{"v":7.2,"d":"7.20"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.6,"d":"10.60"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},"","","","","","",""]
["1991-12-01","JEFG","","","","","","","","",{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.3,"d":"10.30"},{"v":10.2,"d":"10.20"},"","","",""]
["1992-03-01","JEFG","","","","","","","",{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.8,"d":"10.80"},{"v":10.6,"d":"10.60"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":10.2,"d":"10.20"},"","","","",""]
["1992-06-01","JEFG","","","","","","",{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.6,"d":"10.60"},{"v":10.7,"d":"10.70"},{"v":10.5,"d":"10.50"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":10.2,"d":"10.20"},"","","","","",""]
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["1994-09-01","JEFG","","","","","","","","",{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.4,"d":"9.40"},{"v":9.1,"d":"9.10"},{"v":8.9,"d":"8.90"},{"v":8.8,"d":"8.80"},{"v":8.5,"d":"8.50"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},"","",""]
["1994-12-01","JEFG","","","","","","","",{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.2,"d":"9.20"},{"v":8.9,"d":"8.90"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},"","","",""]
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["1995-06-01","JEFG","","","","","",{"v":10.9,"d":"10.90"},{"v":11.1,"d":"11.10"},{"v":10.4,"d":"10.40"},{"v":9.9,"d":"9.90"},{"v":9.5,"d":"9.50"},{"v":9.1,"d":"9.10"},{"v":8.9,"d":"8.90"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},"","","","","",""]
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["1996-12-01","JEFG","","","","","","",{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.5,"d":"8.50"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.8,"d":"8.80"},{"v":8.8,"d":"8.80"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},"","","",""]
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["1997-12-01","JEFG","","","","","","",{"v":8.5,"d":"8.50"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.5,"d":"8.50"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},{"v":7.9,"d":"7.90"},"","","",""]
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["1998-06-01","JEFG","","","","","",{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8,"d":"8.00"},"",""]
["1998-09-01","JEFG","","","","",{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.7,"d":"8.70"},{"v":8.6,"d":"8.60"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8.1,"d":"8.10"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.2,"d":"8.20"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.4,"d":"8.40"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},{"v":8.3,"d":"8.30"},"","",""]
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