Bulletin – September 2014
Equation (A2)
𝜑
t
=
α
+
β
u
t
−
2
+
γ
Δ
4
u
t
−
3
+
Σ
k
=
1
12
δ
k
𝜑
t
−
k
m
+
θ
π
t
−
1
e
+
ε
t
w
t
=
μ
+
ρ
u
t
−
2
+
τ
Δ
u
t
−
1
+
σ
[
(
g
t
−
1
g
t
−
5
)
1
4
−
1
]
+
ω
π
t
−
3
e
+
ξ
t
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