Bulletin – September 2017
Equation (A1)
y
˜
t
=
a
y
,
1
y
˜
t
−
1
+
α
y
,
2
y
˜
t
−
2
−
a
r
2
∑
i
=
1
2
(
r
t
−
i
−
r
t
−
i
*
)
+
ε
y
˜
,
t
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