RBA Annual Conference – 2006 Asymmetric Demography and Macroeconomic Interactions Across National Borders
UN medium projection | ||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1950–1955 | 1955–1960 | 1960–1965 | 1965–1970 | 1970–1975 | 1975–1980 | 1980–1985 | 1985–1990 | 1990–1995 | 1995–2000 | 2000–2005 | 2005–2010 | 2010–2015 | 2015–2020 | 2020–2025 | 2025–2030 | 2030–2035 | 2035–2040 | 2040–2045 | 2045–2050 | |
Source: UN Population Division (2005) | ||||||||||||||||||||
Canada | 0.375 | 0.393 | 0.413 | 0.424 | 0.399 | 0.363 | 0.326 | 0.291 | 0.277 | 0.271 | 0.258 | 0.243 | 0.226 | 0.211 | 0.206 | 0.205 | 0.207 | 0.209 | 0.210 | 0.210 |
France | 0.302 | 0.310 | 0.325 | 0.341 | 0.331 | 0.319 | 0.303 | 0.289 | 0.277 | 0.259 | 0.252 | 0.245 | 0.239 | 0.235 | 0.230 | 0.223 | 0.218 | 0.215 | 0.213 | 0.212 |
Germany | 0.304 | 0.300 | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.300 | 0.289 | 0.270 | 0.239 | 0.217 | 0.215 | 0.213 | 0.202 | 0.188 | 0.180 | 0.178 | 0.181 | 0.186 | 0.190 | 0.192 | 0.195 |
Italy | 0.348 | 0.335 | 0.323 | 0.323 | 0.317 | 0.316 | 0.304 | 0.279 | 0.234 | 0.212 | 0.196 | 0.189 | 0.186 | 0.179 | 0.173 | 0.166 | 0.162 | 0.163 | 0.168 | 0.173 |
Japan | 0.458 | 0.433 | 0.402 | 0.368 | 0.328 | 0.315 | 0.306 | 0.289 | 0.265 | 0.228 | 0.205 | 0.191 | 0.191 | 0.196 | 0.201 | 0.206 | 0.206 | 0.207 | 0.212 | 0.222 |
UK | 0.289 | 0.293 | 0.301 | 0.311 | 0.312 | 0.307 | 0.291 | 0.273 | 0.256 | 0.253 | 0.252 | 0.247 | 0.234 | 0.224 | 0.221 | 0.224 | 0.227 | 0.229 | 0.227 | 0.223 |
US | 0.341 | 0.362 | 0.382 | 0.391 | 0.376 | 0.349 | 0.316 | 0.294 | 0.287 | 0.288 | 0.286 | 0.280 | 0.278 | 0.279 | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.287 | 0.284 | 0.283 | 0.285 |
Argentina | 0.397 | 0.393 | 0.392 | 0.390 | 0.384 | 0.380 | 0.388 | 0.391 | 0.393 | 0.388 | 0.368 | 0.351 | 0.335 | 0.320 | 0.306 | 0.294 | 0.280 | 0.266 | 0.254 | 0.244 |
Australia | 0.333 | 0.356 | 0.376 | 0.386 | 0.377 | 0.366 | 0.341 | 0.322 | 0.301 | 0.291 | 0.282 | 0.266 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.233 | 0.232 | 0.230 | 0.227 | 0.221 | 0.217 |
Brazil | 0.516 | 0.522 | 0.527 | 0.537 | 0.530 | 0.513 | 0.494 | 0.474 | 0.453 | 0.429 | 0.401 | 0.372 | 0.351 | 0.336 | 0.319 | 0.300 | 0.283 | 0.268 | 0.256 | 0.246 |
China | 0.433 | 0.457 | 0.472 | 0.495 | 0.507 | 0.489 | 0.463 | 0.424 | 0.383 | 0.346 | 0.327 | 0.303 | 0.277 | 0.270 | 0.271 | 0.277 | 0.273 | 0.265 | 0.261 | 0.265 |
India | 0.492 | 0.490 | 0.493 | 0.499 | 0.503 | 0.500 | 0.489 | 0.479 | 0.468 | 0.454 | 0.441 | 0.420 | 0.402 | 0.387 | 0.376 | 0.365 | 0.349 | 0.332 | 0.318 | 0.311 |
Indonesia | 0.500 | 0.497 | 0.499 | 0.506 | 0.519 | 0.520 | 0.509 | 0.494 | 0.466 | 0.437 | 0.405 | 0.378 | 0.355 | 0.335 | 0.314 | 0.292 | 0.274 | 0.262 | 0.254 | 0.247 |
Mexico | 0.518 | 0.533 | 0.548 | 0.559 | 0.569 | 0.573 | 0.564 | 0.543 | 0.514 | 0.476 | 0.439 | 0.409 | 0.376 | 0.343 | 0.316 | 0.293 | 0.275 | 0.259 | 0.245 | 0.234 |
Russia | 0.386 | 0.379 | 0.361 | 0.377 | 0.360 | 0.329 | 0.299 | 0.292 | 0.298 | 0.286 | 0.267 | 0.237 | 0.212 | 0.212 | 0.220 | 0.218 | 0.210 | 0.205 | 0.207 | 0.214 |
Saudi Arabia | 0.519 | 0.525 | 0.532 | 0.539 | 0.544 | 0.543 | 0.538 | 0.519 | 0.510 | 0.506 | 0.488 | 0.473 | 0.449 | 0.421 | 0.396 | 0.374 | 0.352 | 0.330 | 0.307 | 0.285 |
South Africa | 0.484 | 0.494 | 0.506 | 0.517 | 0.528 | 0.527 | 0.523 | 0.511 | 0.494 | 0.462 | 0.441 | 0.429 | 0.421 | 0.407 | 0.393 | 0.381 | 0.371 | 0.361 | 0.349 | 0.335 |
South Korea | 0.517 | 0.505 | 0.515 | 0.523 | 0.519 | 0.503 | 0.462 | 0.406 | 0.363 | 0.321 | 0.289 | 0.253 | 0.229 | 0.201 | 0.181 | 0.175 | 0.171 | 0.166 | 0.163 | 0.160 |
Turkey | 0.513 | 0.504 | 0.509 | 0.523 | 0.520 | 0.521 | 0.511 | 0.490 | 0.466 | 0.437 | 0.408 | 0.383 | 0.364 | 0.345 | 0.324 | 0.306 | 0.289 | 0.275 | 0.262 | 0.252 |
Guatemala | 0.554 | 0.554 | 0.556 | 0.559 | 0.555 | 0.552 | 0.559 | 0.563 | 0.563 | 0.560 | 0.553 | 0.541 | 0.527 | 0.507 | 0.483 | 0.455 | 0.424 | 0.394 | 0.363 | 0.335 |
Laos | 0.522 | 0.523 | 0.524 | 0.525 | 0.526 | 0.526 | 0.524 | 0.534 | 0.541 | 0.540 | 0.532 | 0.520 | 0.499 | 0.477 | 0.454 | 0.429 | 0.403 | 0.377 | 0.353 | 0.329 |
Mali | 0.561 | 0.552 | 0.546 | 0.547 | 0.553 | 0.561 | 0.573 | 0.585 | 0.590 | 0.593 | 0.597 | 0.592 | 0.590 | 0.581 | 0.569 | 0.554 | 0.536 | 0.514 | 0.489 | 0.462 |
Tanzania | 0.564 | 0.561 | 0.560 | 0.561 | 0.561 | 0.564 | 0.566 | 0.565 | 0.562 | 0.558 | 0.552 | 0.542 | 0.523 | 0.502 | 0.479 | 0.454 | 0.429 | 0.403 | 0.377 | 0.352 |
Yemen | 0.523 | 0.544 | 0.563 | 0.579 | 0.598 | 0.614 | 0.613 | 0.617 | 0.622 | 0.602 | 0.598 | 0.581 | 0.562 | 0.545 | 0.526 | 0.504 | 0.477 | 0.448 | 0.420 | 0.397 |