RBA Annual Conference – 2006 How Will Ageing Affect the Structure of Financial Markets?

Table 4: Estimates of Demographic Effects on Financial Structure – Size Variables
All countries All countries with financial development variables
SIZE LOANS M3 EQUITIES BONDS SIZE LOANS M3 EQUITIES BONDS
Notes: SIZE – loans plus bonds plus equities as a per cent to GDP; LOANS – ratio of loans to GDP; M3 – ratio of M3 to GDP; EQUITIES – ratio of stock market capitalisation to GDP; BONDS – ratio of bond market capitalisation to GDP; GDPPC – real GDP per capita; INFLATION – annual percentage change in the GDP deflator; URBAN – urbanisation ratio; OPEN – average of the export and import to GDP ratios; 20–39 – share of 20–39 age group in total population; 40–64 – share of 40–64 age group in total population; 65+ – share of age group over 65 in total population; PFAGDP(−1) – ratio of pension fund assets to GDP lagged one year; BANKGDP(−1) – ratio of bank credit to GDP lagged one year. Coefficient estimates in bold are significant at the 5 per cent level. t-statistics are shown in brackets.
GDPPC 0.099
(7.8)		 0.0176
(11.5)		 0.003
(2.4)		 0.0084
(2.1)		 −0.0058
(1.8)		   0.079
(5.5)		 0.0072
(5.2)		 −0.0046
(3.3)		 0.0038
(0.8)		 −0.005
(1.3)
INFLATION 0.018
(2.0)		 0.0031
(2.6)		 0.00031
(0.4)		 −0.002
(0.6)		 −0.0059
(2.5)		   0.0074
(0.9)		 0.00006
(0.1)		 −0.00072
(1.2)		 −0.0019
(0.6)		 −0.0063
(2.7)
URBAN 0.048
(4.2)		 0.0014
(1.6)		 0.0038
(6.0)		 0.0017
(0.6)		 0.0012
(2.4)		   0.0081
(0.6)		 0.0024
(3.4)		 0.0036
(5.6)		 −0.0001
(0.1)		 −0.0069
(2.1)
OPEN 0.0025
(0.7)		 0.0053
(8.4)		 0.0044
(10.3)		 0.0092
(6.8)		 0.0014
(1.6)		   0.0045
(1.4)		 −0.0014
(2.8)		 0.0006
(1.5)		 0.0094
(6.1)		 0.0026
(3.0)
20–39 −0.093
(4.1)		 0.0056
(2.7)		 0.0014
(1.0)		 −0.0063
(1.0)		 −0.0062
(1.1)		   −0.06
(2.6)		 −0.0014
(2.8)		 0.00004
(0.1)		 −0.0002
(0.1)		 0.0072
(1.2)
40–64 −0.036
(1.5)		 0.021
(7.7)		 0.025
(14.2)		 0.064
(8.5)		 0.014
(2.3)		   −0.037
(6.3)		 −0.0059
(2.5)		 0.012
(6.1)		 0.048
(5.6)		 0.018
(2.6)
65+ 0.156
(5.2)		 0.039
(8.4)		 0.027
(6.9)		 0.025
(2.1)		 0.081
(10.3)		   0.15
(5.2)		 0.019
(5.6)		 0.018
(5.0)		 −0.0082
(0.7)		 0.076
(9.7)
PFAGDP(−1)   1.5
(6.3)		 −0.011
(3.2)		 −0.23
(6.2)		 0.98
(9.5)		 0.38
(6.4)
BANKGDP(−1)   0.5
(3.5)		 0.91
(43.0)		 0.53
(27.4)		 0.057
(0.9)		 0.047
(1.3)
R2 0.93 0.8 0.87 0.71 0.97   0.95 0.93 0.93 0.77 0.97
Countries 37 71 65 66 37   35 68 62 63 35
Observations 395 2,468 2,160 1,246 419   365 1,937 1,684 1,069 380