RBA Annual Conference – 2009 Terms of Trade Shocks and Fiscal Cycles
| Regressions | Explanatory variables | Countries | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-income (OECD) | Upper-middle-income | Lower-middle-income | Low-income | |||||||||
| Coefficient | p-value | Coefficient | p-value | Coefficient | p-value | Coefficient | p-value | |||||
| Benchmark | Constant | −0.07 | (0.88) | 0.003 | (0.94) | −0.10 | (0.96) | 0.02 | (0.97) | |||
| Terms of trade | 0.02 | (0.62) | −0.05 | (0.00) | 0.14 | (0.19) | −0.03 | (0.19) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.00) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 0.001 | (0.00) | 0.003 | (0.00) | ||||
| 1 | Terms of trade | 0.03 | (0.69) | −0.08 | (0.00) | 0.17 | (0.34) | −0.01 | (0.77) | |||
| Terms of trade x capital flow bonanzas | 0.01 | (0.92) | 0.02 | (0.56) | −0.16 | (0.54) | −0.08 | (0.20) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.01) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 0.001 | (0.09) | 0.003 | (0.00) | ||||
| 2 | Terms of trade | 0.06 | (0.32) | −0.11 | (0.00) | 0.39 | (0.06) | −0.08 | (0.12) | |||
| Terms of trade x terms of trade booms | −0.10 | (0.37) | −0.08 | (0.05) | −0.44 | (0.16) | 0.07 | (0.30) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.00) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 0.001 | (0.00) | 0.003 | (0.00) | ||||
| 3 | Terms of trade | 0.03 | (0.57) | −0.01 | (0.79) | 0.54 | (0.02) | −0.03 | (0.15) | |||
| Terms of trade x flexible exchange rates | −0.08 | (0.69) | −0.08 | (0.03) | −0.72 | (0.01) | 0.02 | (0.43) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.00) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 0.001 | (0.00) | 0.006 | (0.00) | ||||
| 4 | Terms of trade | 0.03 | (0.50) | −0.01 | (0.58) | −0.02 | (0.93) | −0.03 | (0.34) | |||
| Terms of trade x persistent terms of trade shocks | −0.08 | (0.52) | −0.06 | (0.05) | 0.20 | (0.44) | −0.01 | (0.91) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.00) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 1×10−4 | (0.00) | 0.003 | (0.00) | ||||
| 5 | Terms of trade | 0.02 | (0.60) | −0.01 | (0.60) | −0.02 | (0.91) | −0.03 | (0.33) | |||
| Terms of trade x commodity-producing countries | −0.03 | (0.82) | −0.08 | (0.01) | 0.32 | (0.16) | −0.03 | (0.68) | ||||
| GDP | −0.001 | (0.00) | 0.002 | (0.00) | 0.001 | (0.00) | 0.003 | (0.00) | ||||
|
Source: author's calculations |
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