RDP 8602: Short-Term Interest Rates, Weekly Money Announcements and Rational Forecasts Equation (8)

ΔrTB = [.055] −.020 + [.058] .292 * UΔM + [.061] .176 * EΔM + [.079] .093UR 1 + [.190] .0194UR 2 + [.403] .785 ο UR 3 [.317] − .783 * UR 4 + [.356] .228 UR 5 − [.356] .926 * UR 6 + [.633] .439 UR 7 − [.283] .075 ER 1 [1.219] −0.29 ER 2 − [1.430] .782 ER 3 − [1.161] .118 ER 4 + 1.548 2.39 ER 5 − 1.220 .230 ER 6 − [3.541] .349 ER 7 R 2 = .42 * dw=2.15 n−k=101 H 0 10: F= 1.82 * , df1=8, df2=109 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGceaqabeaafaqaae WanaaaaaaabaGaeuiLdqKaaeOCaiaabsfacaqGcbaabaGaeyypa0da baWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaGGUaGaaGimaiaaiwdacaaI1aGaaiyxaa qaaiabgkHiTiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGOmaiaaicdaaaaakeaacqGHRaWk aeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaac6cacaaIWaGaaGynaiaaiIdacaGGDb aabaGaaiOlaiaaikdacaaI5aGaaGOmamaaCaaameqabaGaaiOkaaaa liaabwfacqqHuoarcaqGnbaaaaGcbaGaey4kaScabaWaa0baaSqaai aacUfacaGGUaGaaGimaiaaiAdacaaIXaGaaiyxaaqaaiaab6cacaqG XaGaae4naiaabAdadaahaaadbeqaaiaacQcaaaWccaqGfbGaeuiLdq KaaeytaaaaaOqaaiabgUcaRaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaiOlaiaa icdacaaI3aGaaGyoaiaac2faaeaacaqGUaGaaeimaiaabMdacaqGZa GaaeyvaiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaGymaaqabaaaaaGcbaGaey4kaSca baWaa0baaSqaaiaacUfacaGGUaGaaGymaiaaiMdacaaIWaGaaiyxaa qaaiaab6cacaqGWaGaaeymaiaabMdacaqG0aGaaeyvaiaabkfadaWg aaadbaGaaGOmaaqabaaaaaGcbaGaey4kaScabaWaa0baaSqaaiaacU facaGGUaGaaGinaiaaicdacaaIZaGaaiyxaaqaaiaac6cacaaI3aGa aGioaiaaiwdadaahaaadbeqaaiabe+7aVbaaliaabwfacaqGsbWaaS baaWqaaiaaiodaaeqaaaaaaOqaaaqaaaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGa aiOlaiaaiodacaaIXaGaaG4naiaac2faaeaacqGHsislcaGGUaGaaG 4naiaaiIdacaaIZaWaaWbaaWqabeaacaGGQaaaaSGaaeyvaiaabkfa daWgaaadbaGaaGinaaqabaaaaaGcbaGaey4kaScabaWaa0baaSqaai aacUfacaGGUaGaaG4maiaaiwdacaaI2aGaaiyxaaqaaiaac6cacaaI YaGaaGOmaiaaiIdacaqGvbGaaeOuamaaBaaameaacaaI1aaabeaaaa aakeaacqGHsislaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaac6cacaaIZaGaaGyn aiaaiAdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaiMdacaaIYaGaaGOnamaaCaaame qabaGaaiOkaaaaliaabwfacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiAdaaeqaaaaa aOqaaiabgUcaRaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaiOlaiaaiAdacaaIZa GaaG4maiaac2faaeaacaGGUaGaaGinaiaaiodacaaI5aGaaeyvaiaa bkfadaWgaaadbaGaaG4naaqabaaaaaGcbaGaeyOeI0cabaWaa0baaS qaaiaacUfacaGGUaGaaGOmaiaaiIdacaaIZaGaaiyxaaqaaiaac6ca caaIWaGaaG4naiaaiwdacaqGfbGaaeOuamaaBaaameaacaaIXaaabe aaaaaakeaaaeaaaeaaaeaaaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaaigdacaGG UaGaaGOmaiaaigdacaaI5aGaaiyxaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaicdacaGGUa GaaGOmaiaaiMdacaqGfbGaaeOuamaaBaaameaacaaIYaaabeaaaaaa keaacqGHsislaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaai4waiaaigdacaGGUaGaaGinai aaiodacaaIWaGaaiyxaaqaaiaac6cacaaI3aGaaGioaiaaikdacaqG fbGaaeOuamaaBaaameaacaaIZaaabeaaaaaakeaacqGHsislaeaada qhaaWcbaGaai4waiaaigdacaGGUaGaaGymaiaaiAdacaaIXaGaaiyx aaqaaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaGymaiaaiIdacaqGfbGaaeOuamaaBaaame aacaaI0aaabeaaaaaakeaacqGHRaWkaeaadaqhaaWcbaGaaGymaiaa c6cacaaI1aGaaGinaiaaiIdaaeaacaaIYaGaaiOlaiaaiodacaaI5a GaaeyraiaabkfadaWgaaadbaGaaGynaaqabaaaaaGcbaGaeyOeI0ca baWaa0baaSqaaiaaigdacaGGUaGaaGOmaiaaikdacaaIWaaabaGaai OlaiaaikdacaaIZaGaaGimaiaabweacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiAda aeqaaaaaaOqaaiabgkHiTaqaamaaDaaaleaacaGGBbGaaG4maiaac6 cacaaI1aGaaGinaiaaigdacaGGDbaabaGaaiOlaiaaiodacaaI0aGa aGyoaiaabweacaqGsbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaiEdaaeqaaaaaaaaakeaafa qaaeqaiaaaaaqaaaqaaaqaaiaadkfadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaGc cqGH9aqpcaGGUaGaaGinaiaaikdadaahaaWcbeqaaiaacQcaaaaake aacaqGKbGaae4Daiabg2da9iaaikdacaGGUaGaaGymaiaaiwdaaeaa caqGUbGaeyOeI0Iaae4Aaiabg2da9iaaigdacaaIWaGaaGymaaqaai aabIeadaWgaaWcbaGaaGimaaqabaGccaaIXaGaaGimaiaacQdacaaM c8UaaiOraiabg2da9iaaigdacaGGUaGaaGioaiaaikdadaahaaWcbe qaaiaacQcaaaGccaGGSaaabaGaaeizaiaabAgacaqGXaGaaeypaiaa bIdacaqGSaaabaGaaeizaiaabAgacaqGYaGaaeypaiaabgdacaqGWa Gaaeyoaaaaaaaa@27D6@