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RDP 9611: A Markov-Switching Model of Inflation in Australia
Equation (A.1)
P
[
S
t
=
0
,
S
t
−
1
=
0
S
t
=
0
,
S
t
−
1
=
1
S
t
=
1
,
S
t
−
1
=
0
S
t
=
1
,
S
t
−
1
=
1
]
=
[
q
⋅
x
(
1
−
p
)
⋅
y
(
1
−
q
)
⋅
x
p
⋅
y
]
⋅
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