Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2012-07 Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts Data

The underlying data can be downloaded by selecting from the following:

Data on Forecasts and Outcomes

The main data for forecasts and outcomes (or ‘actuals’) are presented in two formats:

1. In Forecast date by event date format, with separate sheets for each variable. Changes in data sources and variable definitions (as explained in Abbreviations tab) are described in column titles.
2. We also provide files that arrange the data in forecast date by horizon format, with a separate file for each variable:
   • CPI inflation (year-ended)
   • Underlying inflation (year-ended)
   • GDP growth (quarterly growth)
   • Unemployment rate (level)

Within each file there are separate sheets for forecasts, actuals and errors. Timing is by date of the forecast, not (as sometimes occurs elsewhere) date of the last observation. Therefore, the column labelled ‘t’ is the current-quarter forecast. Data sources and variable definitions are in row titles.

Note that formatting and quantity of these data changes over time, reflecting changes in our source data. The data are explained in Appendix B of RDP 2012-07.

Other Data

• VAR forecasts (used in Section 6.1)
• Yield curve data (used in Appendix B)
• Consensus forecasts (available by subscription only)

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