Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2014-01 Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

Contents

• Introduction
• Terms of Trade Episodes
• Macroeconomic Consequences
• Economic Policy Settings and Terms of Trade Episodes
• Conclusions
• Appendix A: Dating the Terms of Trade
• Appendix B: Data Sources
• Appendix C: Economic Indicators around Terms of Trade Peaks
• References

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An earlier version of this paper was presented at the ‘Commodity Price Volatility, Past and Present’ Conference, held on 29–30 November 2012, by the Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, and the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, at the Australian National University. We thank participants at the conference, those at a seminar at the Reserve Bank of Australia, Laura Berger-Thomson, Leon Berkelmans, Natasha Cassidy, Ellis Connolly, Troy Gill, Alex Heath, Jonathan Kearns and especially Chris Stewart for helpful comments.