Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2015-11 Unprecedented Changes in the Terms of Trade

Contents

• Introduction
• Model
• Temporary and Permanent Changes in Commodity Prices
• Empirical Analysis
• Results
• Implications of Higher and More Volatile Commodity Prices
• Conclusion
• Appendix A: Model
• Appendix B: Data Sources
• Appendix C: Additional Results
• References

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For comments and discussions we thank Efrem Castelnuovo, Christian Gillitzer, Greg Kaplan, Christopher Kent, James Morley, Adrian Pagan, Michael Plumb, Bruce Preston, Tim Robinson, John Simon, Adam Cagliarini and seminar participants at the University of New South Wales, Monash University, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Adelaide University, Melbourne University and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Dr Kulish's contribution to this research was supported under Australian Research Council's Linkage Projects funding scheme (LP140101020).