RDP 7701 abridged: A Preliminary Annual Database 1900/01 to 1973/74 Abridged Version I Relative Accuracy of the Data
May 1977
One must be careful about the meaning of “reliability”. For present purposes the meaning intended is the accuracy with which particular series measure concepts based on given definitions. In most cases the definitions used are those presently used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It is acknowledged that the definitions themselves may not necessarily be the most appropriate for the measurement of long term trends, nor, in some cases, may they be “best practice”. An example of this is the official estimates of gross domestic product, which omit livestock accretion.[1]
Assessments of the reliability of the data presented in this paper are given in Table I.1. Ratings of 1, 2 or 3 are given, and most recent data, particularly data compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) are given a rating of 1. ratings 2 and 3 denote decreasing degrees of unreliability, with 3 being reserved for data from the world war years, some very early data, and for some interpolated series.
| Series | 1900/01 – 1919/202 | 1920/21 – 1938/39 | 1939/40 – 1947/482 | 1948/49 – 1973/74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Expenditure Aggregates | ||||
| GDP | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| exports | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| imports | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| private investment | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| public investment | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| private consumption | 3 | 2 and 3 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| public consumption | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| stock changes | 3 | 2 and 3 | 2 and 3 | 1 |
| Prices and Wages | ||||
| GDP | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| exports | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| imports | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| private investment | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| public investment | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| private consumption | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| public consumption | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| average earnings | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| award wages | 1 and 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| yield on long term govt securities | 2 | 1 and 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Workforce and Hours | ||||
| Workforce | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| civilian employment | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| defence forces | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| civilian government administration | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| unemployment rate | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| standard hours worked | 1 and 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Data | ||||
| money (M1, M3) | 1 and 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| bank advances | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| international reserves | 3 | 2 and 3 | 1 and 2 | 1 |
| government securities | ||||
| (a) on issue in Australia3 | 2 and 3 | 1 and 3 | 1 | 1 |
| (b) on issue overseas | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| (c) held by public sector | 2 and 3 | 2 and 3 | 1 and 2 | 1 |
| (d) held by banks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (e) interest paid | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| cumulated capital inflow | ||||
| (a) public | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| (b) private | 3 | 2 and 3 | 2 | 2 |
| exchange rate | ||||
| (a) UK/Australian | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (b) US/Australian | 2 | 1 and 2 | 1 | 1 |
| tax collections | ||||
| (a) income | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| (b) indirect | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| cash benefits | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| subsidies | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
|
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Attention has been paid wherever possible to comparing alternative candidates for any particular series . Emphasis has been on obtaining long runs of consistently derived data, subject to the constraint that the series ultimately chosen does not diverge too greatly from the reasonable alternatives. The reason for emphasising consistency is to minimise the number of breaks in any series in order to maximise its value for econometric purposes.
Such considerations determined, for example, the choice of GDP, average earnings, changes in non-farm stocks and private and public final consumption expenditure. The other series are presented where each of the above is described, in order to give some indication of the differences between the series. In some cases the differences are non-trivial, although the possible error introduced in contingent series is probably small. Occasionally the errors are small as, for example, between the alternative national income estimates for 1938/39, and compare favourably with differences in alternative estimates for 1973/74.
It should be clearly understood, however, that no claims are made for great accuracy in many “secondary” statistics[2] such as GDP, various expenditure aggregates, capital inflow and so on. But on the other hand, it is believed that the statistics are sufficiently reliable to be used for meaningful econometric work.
Footnotes
This omission is more important for the early year of the century when the farm sector provided some 30% of total Product, compared with about 10% now. As a result livestock fluctuations had a much greater significance then than now. [1]
That is, series derived from manipulating directly observed data. Examples are private consumption expenditure, London funds of the banking system and gross domestic product. [2]