RDP 1977-05: Modelling Monetary Disequilibrium
Appendix C: Parameter Estimates and Test Statistics for Models 4 and 5
P.D. Jonson and J.C. Taylor
September 1977
TABLE C.1: PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR GROUP 1 EQUATIONS
1959(3) – 1975(4)
MODEL 4 |
MODEL 5 |
Parameter |
Estimate |
t-ratio |
Parammeter |
Estimate |
t-ratio |
α1 |
.5391 |
5.99 |
α1 |
.8072 |
9.62 |
α2 |
1.3107 |
5.19 |
α2 |
1.3235 |
3.31 |
α3 |
.1 |
|
α3 |
.1 |
|
α4 |
1.9771 |
5.83 |
α4 |
0.1083 |
3.42 |
α5 |
.1335 |
3.72 |
α5 |
.1226 |
5.48 |
α6 |
.0650 |
3.96 |
α6 |
.0278 |
8.91 |
α7 |
.3049 |
4.89 |
α7 |
.3245 |
3.13 |
α8 |
.5902 |
4.28 |
α8 |
.13279 |
3.04 |
α9 |
.2003 |
3.51 |
α9 |
.2132 |
3.63 |
α10 |
0.0 |
|
α10 |
0.0 |
|
α11 |
0.0 |
|
α11 |
0.0 |
|
α26 |
−.0149 |
.75 |
α26 |
.3077 |
.35 |
γ1 |
−.1659 |
4.36 |
γ1 |
−.1663 |
4.28 |
γ2 |
0.0 |
|
γ2 |
3.9 |
|
γ3 |
.0763 |
5.92 |
γ3 |
−.8068 |
.68 |
γ4 |
−.2003 |
5.76 |
γ4 |
−.2233 |
3.80 |
γ5 |
0.0 |
|
γ5 |
0.0 |
|
γ6 |
−.2090 |
6.68 |
γ6 |
−.2387 |
6.55 |
γ7 |
0.0 |
|
γ7 |
1.0 |
|
λ1 |
.012 |
|
λ1 |
−.712 |
|
λ2 |
.0144 |
6.25 |
λ2 |
.1143 |
9.37 |
λ3 |
.0025 |
|
λ3 |
.0035 |
|
λ4 |
.020 |
|
λ4 |
.020 |
|
β1 |
1.0 |
|
β1 |
−.8 |
|
β2 |
−1.430 |
3.18 |
β2 |
−.3595 |
2.01 |
β3 |
−3.6838 |
4.25 |
β3 |
−3.2068 |
4.60 |
β4 |
−1.6423 |
2.45 |
β4 |
−1.1095 |
1.90 |
β5 |
−.01 |
|
β5 |
−.11 |
|
β6 |
.0114 |
.19 |
β6 |
.1956 |
1.08 |
β7 |
.3 |
|
β7 |
.3 |
|
β8 |
−.2849 |
10.66 |
β8 |
−.2503 |
8.00 |
β9 |
.7 |
|
β9 |
.7 |
|
β10 |
.8 |
|
β10 |
.8 |
|
β11 |
.0829 |
4.88 |
β11 |
.8028 |
.22 |
β12 |
0.0 |
|
β12 |
0.0 |
|
β13 |
.1 |
|
β13 |
.1 |
|
β14 |
0.0 |
|
β14 |
0.0 |
|
β15 |
.2358 |
7.31 |
β15 |
.1704 |
12.15 |
β16 |
1.7114 |
9.86 |
β16 |
1.7049 |
9.33 |
β17 |
.4303 |
6.51 |
β17 |
.4920 |
8.87 |
β18 |
.2108 |
2.64 |
β18 |
.3365 |
1.61 |
β19 |
0.0 |
|
β19 |
0.0 |
|
β20 |
0.0 |
|
β20 |
0.0 |
|
β21 |
0.0 |
|
β21 |
0.0 |
|
β22 |
0.0 |
|
β22 |
0.0 |
|
β23 |
0.0 |
|
β23 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
β3* |
−81.1851 |
.78 |
|
|
|
β4* |
82.3468 |
.70 |
|
|
|
β5* |
−7.7269 |
.76 |
|
|
|
β6* |
|
|
TABLE C.2: PARAMETER ESTIMATES FOR GROUP 2 EQUATIONS
1959(3) – 1975(4)
Parameter |
Estimate |
t-ratio |
Parameter |
Estimate |
t-ratio |
α12 |
.1338 |
5.89 |
α12 |
.1287 |
5.88 |
α13 |
1.5077 |
7.51 |
α13 |
1.4782 |
7.95 |
α14 |
2.0 |
|
α14 |
2.0 |
|
α15 |
.9661 |
7.16 |
α15 |
1.3517 |
7.04 |
α16 |
.5 |
|
α16 |
.5 |
|
α17 |
1.7525 |
6.49 |
α17 |
1.6939 |
5.01 |
α18 |
.1234 |
8.24 |
α18 |
.1366 |
8.49 |
α19 |
.26 |
|
α19 |
.26 |
|
α20 |
1.7856 |
6.20 |
α20 |
1.3870 |
6.54 |
α21 |
.0640 |
1.20 |
α21 |
.0883 |
1.68 |
α22 |
.8305 |
4.75 |
α22 |
.7198 |
4.35 |
α23 |
.0618 |
1.67 |
α23 |
−.0085 |
1.32 |
α24 |
.0623 |
3.59 |
α24 |
.0215 |
1.12 |
α25 |
.0715 |
9.13 |
α25 |
.0306 |
3.50 |
β24 |
−.2633 |
2.93 |
β24 |
.3365 |
3.61 |
β25 |
−.3501 |
5.68 |
β25 |
−.2363 |
4.24 |
β26 |
.2195 |
4.53 |
β26 |
.2406 |
5.45 |
β27 |
−.8117 |
8.98 |
β17 |
−.7134 |
9.68 |
β28 |
.5 |
|
β28 |
.5 |
|
β29 |
1.9429 |
4.74 |
β29 |
2.5580 |
5.08 |
β30 |
.0697 |
1.87 |
β30 |
.0145 |
.40 |
β31 |
−.7908 |
8.32 |
β31 |
−.8097 |
12.70 |
β32 |
.1787 |
4.41 |
β32 |
.0525 |
1.69 |
β33 |
.8045 |
36.99 |
β33 |
.8293 |
34.57 |
β34 |
13.44 |
6.05 |
β34 |
12.7146 |
6.47 |
β35 |
−.2 |
|
β35 |
−.2 |
|
β36 |
2.0527 |
13.61 |
β36 |
2.0758 |
17.39 |
β37 |
.0716 |
3.85 |
β37 |
.0930 |
4.88 |
β38 |
−.0135 |
2.50 |
β38 |
−.0174 |
3.69 |
β39 |
.0376 |
10.62 |
β39 |
.0451 |
13.66 |
β40 |
−1.7144 |
2.58 |
β40 |
−2.9445 |
3.96 |
β41 |
2.3117 |
2.58 |
β41 |
3.0649 |
3.76 |
β42 |
1.1321 |
49.17 |
β42 |
1.0546 |
40.36 |
β43 |
.0279 |
6.43 |
β43 |
.0074 |
10.88 |
β44 |
−.0285 |
3.64 |
β44 |
−.0068 |
.69 |
β45 |
5.4425 |
.88 |
β45 |
.2646 |
5.87 |
β46 |
−.1260 |
4.87 |
β46 |
−.0116 |
3.89 |
β47 |
.4482 |
3.34 |
β47 |
.1795 |
8.56 |
β48 |
−.0557 |
5.45 |
β48 |
−.0255 |
5.85 |
β49 |
6.3225 |
.61 |
β49 |
−.1466 |
.45 |
β50 |
−.1863 |
5.47 |
β50 |
−.0616 |
4.06 |
β51 |
.3026 |
1.63 |
β51 |
.1361 |
1.20 |
β52 |
.1249 |
10.77 |
β52 |
.1064 |
11.99 |
β53 |
.0597 |
9.43 |
β53 |
.0614 |
13.23 |
TABLE C.3: TEST STATISTICS FOR MODELS 4 AND 5
Variable |
MODEL 4 |
MODEL 5 |
r2 |
RMSPE1 |
RMSPE2 |
r2 |
RMSPE1 |
RMSPE2 |
d |
.1564 |
.9 |
3.0 |
.1097 |
.9 |
1.2 |
k |
.3896 |
.002* |
.003* |
.4331 |
.002* |
.002* |
l |
.2213 |
.006* |
.005* |
.3760 |
.005* |
.004 |
P |
.5300 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
.4626 |
1.0 |
6.8 |
Px |
.1866 |
3.1 |
12.7 |
.2241 |
2.9 |
6.6 |
W |
.5215 |
.9 |
8.4 |
.5873 |
.8 |
5.0 |
F |
.1896 |
6.1 |
79.6 |
.2807 |
5.0 |
59.8 |
M |
.0.000 |
1.1 |
6.8 |
.4060 |
.9 |
6.7 |
N |
.3138 |
.2 |
1.3 |
.3256 |
.2 |
0.9 |
x |
.3143 |
7.0 |
7.1 |
.3778 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
i |
.3440 |
4.7 |
20.4 |
.3310 |
5.0 |
12.2 |
y |
.2304 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
.2729 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
Pg |
.1573 |
2.3 |
10.2 |
.1759 |
2.5 |
7.4 |
B |
.2520 |
1.5 |
19.6 |
.3227 |
1.0 |
9.8 |
A |
.4317 |
1.1 |
5.5 |
.5587 |
1.0 |
4.6 |
T1 |
.4075 |
8.2 |
11.5 |
.4546 |
7.4 |
10.0 |
T2 |
.2645 |
2.6 |
12.0 |
.2661 |
2.6 |
8.8 |
R |
.0264 |
8.0 |
35.0 |
.0933 |
7.4 |
33.7 |
v |
.6480 |
1.1 |
8.1 |
.5879 |
1.2 |
6.5 |
r |
.4652 |
.009* |
.018* |
.6331 |
.001* |
.007* |
B |
.5400 |
1.4 |
11.2 |
.7705 |
.8 |
6.2 |
x |
.0943 |
1.4 |
25.0 |
.1497 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
C |
.6025 |
1.0 |
7.3 |
.6352 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
K |
.6602 |
.1 |
3.4 |
.6858 |
.1 |
0.9 |
L |
.4861 |
.3 |
2.6 |
.6369 |
.2 |
1.2 |