RDP 1977-07: Money and the Balance of Payments Appendix B: Dynamic and Non-Dynamic Simulation Performance of the Models

P.D. Jonson, R.W. Rankin and J.C. Taylor

October 1977

  MODEL A MODEL B MODEL C MODEL D MODEL E MODEL B*
U.K. MODEL RBA76 U.K. MODEL RBA76 U.K. MODEL RBA76 U.K. MODEL RBA76 U.K. MODEL RBA76 U.K. MODEL RBA76
RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2 RMSPE1 RMSPE2
1. d 2.5 7.0 .9 2.0 2.6 1.9 .9 1.9 2.5 5.3 .9 4.4 2.5 3.7 .9 2.1 2.5 5.9 .9 1.4 2.6 2.4 .9 2.0
k     .002* .002*     .002* .002*     .002* .003*     .002* .002*     .002* .002*     .002* .002*
2. x 11.5 10.0 6.2 5.3 11.4 8.8 7.3 6.2 11.4 9.5 6.1 5.8 11.4 9.2 7.1 6.0 11.5 10.3 6.0 4.9 11.5 9.3 7.3 6.3
3. i 4.9 4.5 5.1 12.9 5.0 6.4 4.4 6.2 5.0 4.8 6.2 6.6 5.0 5.7 4.4 6.5 5.0 4.8 5.0 8.0 5.0 6.7 4.4 6.5
4. y 3.1 6.3 2.0 3.2 3.1 4.0 2.1 2.2 3.1 5.5 2.1 4.8 3.1 5.1 2.1. 2.4 3.1 5.6 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.9 2.1 2.2
5. P 3.4 3.8 1.0 7.3 3.3 7.1 1.0 3.8 3.3 5.4 .9 3.2 3.3 6.6 1.0 3.0 3.3 4.5 1.0 2.7 3.3 8.1 .9 4.6
Pg     2.2 8.3     2.2 4.6     .7 3.0     2.1 4.2     2.2 4.3     2.2 5.1
6. PX 4.3 2.1 2.9 6.6 4.2 4.0 2.9 5.3 4.2 2.8 3.0 5.8 4.2 3.2 2.9 5.3 4.3 2.2 3.0 4.6 4.2 3.9 2.9 5.3
7. rb 11.2 17.1 .002* .009* 15.0 40.3 .001* .003* 14.5 16.5 .001* .013* 14.2 23.5 .001* .003* 14.4 16.2 .002* .006* 15.7 36.3 .001* .003*
8. T1 ) ) 7.6 10.3 ) ) 7.5 7.7 ) ) 7.5 7.4 ) ) 7.5 7.6 ) ) 7.4 7.7 ) ) 7.5 7.8
T2 )5.0 )9.2 2.6 9.7 )5.1 )14.4 2.6 3.6 )5.1 )11.1 2.6 3.6 )5.1 )12.7 2.6 3.4 )5.1 )10.2 2.6 5.3 )5.1 )14.9 2.6 4.2
9. C 3.2 8.8 .9 7.1 3.1 10.0 .9 6.5 3.1 9.0 1.0 7.3 3.1 8.8 1.4 6.4 3.1 8.5 1.0 5.3 3.1 9.3 .9 6.7
B     1.4 4.0     1.4 6.3     1.4 4.1     1.4 5.7     1.4 8.9     1.4 6.2
A     1.0 6.0     1.0 6.3     1.0 11.0     .9 5.8     1.0 4.3     1.0 6.5
I     1.1 8.0     1.0 2.2     1.0 9.2     1.0 2.3     1.0 4.6     1.0 2.1
10. F 28.8 53.3 5.3 42.0 30.5 28.1 1.8 8.6 29.2 43.4 3.7 30.9 29.9 20.8 1.6 7.4 29.3 50.7 4.5 44.2 29.4 23.1 1.8 8.8
11. R 17.7 21.6 8.3 32.7 20.2 64.0 5.4 18.4 17.4 17.5 5.5 20.0 18.7 37.7 5.4 16.9 17.3 20.2 5.6 27.9 19.2 41.7 5.3 17.7
12. M 3.0 2.8 1.1 7.8 3.9 15.9 .6 4.8 2.5 4.8 .7 4.2 3.8 11.6 .7 4.6 2.6 3.5 .7 3.0 4.3 13.5 .7 5.1
13. E     .9 5.2     .8 4.0     .8 4.8     .8 4.1     .8 4.7     .8 3.9
14. 1     .005* .004*     .005* .004*     .005* .004*     .005* .004*     .005* .004*     .005* .004*
N     .2 1.1     .2 1.0     .2 1.3     .2 1.1     .2 1.0     .2 .9
W     .8 5.7     .8 6.1     .8 3.0     .7 5.5     .8 2.5     .8 6.7
15. v     1.2 9.4     1.2 8.2     1.2 5.9     1.2 8.0     1.2 5.6     1.2 8.4
16. K     .1 .6     .1 1.2     .1 2.5     .1 1.4     .1 1.3     .1 1.2
17. L     .2 1.6     .2 1.2     .2 2.0     .2 1.2     .2 1.4     .2 1.2

All figures are root mean square percentage errors, except those denoted *, which are root mean square errors.