RDP 9005: Real Exchange Rates and Australian Export Competitiveness Appendix

Matthew T. Jones and Jenny Wilkinson

August 1990

Weights

The weight for country j in a bilateral export weighted index is the ratio of total exports of goods and services between Australia and country j to total Australian exports. Weights are calculated for 22 of Australia's trading partners. They are given by:

where Xj is the value in $A of Australian exports to country j.

The third country export weight of country j provides a measure of the importance of a change in the relative price PJ/PAUS for the demand for Australia's real exports.[18] It can be calculated by measuring the importance of each market to Australian exports, weighted by the degree of competition with other countries in each export market. It is given by:

where Inline Equation is the value in $US of good i country j exports to market k.

The weighting formula has two components. The first component measures Australian exports to market k as a proportion of total Australian exports. In the second component, the index is constructed as a product of two terms. The first term measures the importance of Australia's trade in good i to market k. The second term measures the importance of country j as an export competitor in market k. The index is then summed over all markets. We have not extended the index to include measures of “internal” trade due to the large data requirements.

For the calculation of the third country weights, Australian exports in 1987 were disaggregated at a three digit SITC level into all products making up more than 0.5 percent of the total. Twenty-eight individual categories, making up 70 per cent of total exports, were identified and were then divided into 7 markets of destination. Competition between Australia and our 15 major competitors in each market was captured.

Table A.1 provides a snapshot of the weights under several different indices.[19]

Table A.1 Weights Comparison
(Index weights for 1989, expressed as a percent)
Country Annual 80/89 3rd Country TWI ABARE
Belgium 1.0 1.0 – 0.9 –
Canada 1.9 1.9 24.3 2.2 2.6
China 3.2 4.1 – 2.8 –
France 2.6 2.6 6.4 2.8 3.3
Germany 2.9 3.2 8.2 5.0 5.9
Hong Kong 4.8 3.1 0.2 3.4 4.1
India 1.5 1.3 – 1.0 –
Indonesia 2.1 2.0 – 1.4 –
Ireland – – 1.3 – –
Italy 2.8 2.6 1.6 3.0 3.5
Japan 32.0 33.0 9.1 26.7 31.8
Malaysia 2.1 2.4 0.4. 1.8 –
Netherlands 1.9 17 3.3 5.2. 6.2
New Zealand 6.1 6.2 72 1.5 –
PNG 2.1 2.4 – 1.1 –
Saudi Arabia 0.7 1.4 – 0.9 –
Singapore 4.1 3.4 1.5 3.2 3.8
South Korea 5.9 4.5 1.4 4.2 5.0
Sweden 0.4 0.3 – 1.2 –
Switzerland 1.1 0.3 – 1.0 –
Taiwan 4.3 3.4 – 4.3 5.1
Thailand – – 1.2 1.1 –
United Kingdom 4.2 4.9 37 6.1 7.3
United States 12.3 13.4 30.2 17.9 21.4
USSR – – – 1.3 –
Table A.2 Categories of Disaggregation in 3rd Country Export Based Index
Commodities Competitors Markets
001 Live animals for food Canada USA
011 Meat fresh, chilled, frozen France Japan
022 Milk & cream Germany Other Asia
024 Cheese & curd Hong Kong UK
036 Shellfish fresh, frozen Ireland Other Europe
041 Wheat, unmilled Italy New Zealand
043 Barley, unmilled Japan Middle East
054 Veges etc fresh, simply pres. Korea  
057 Fruit, nuts, fresh, dried Malaysia  
081 Feeding stuff for animals Netherlands  
211 Hides, skins excluding furs, raw New Zealand  
246 Pulpwood, chips, wood waste Singapore  
263 Cotton Thailand  
268 Wool excluding tops, animal hair United Kingdom  
281 Iron ore concentrate USA  
286 Uranium, thorium ore, concentrate    
322 Coal, lignite & peat    
674 Iron, steel, universal, plate, sheet    
682 Copper    
684 Aluminium    
685 Lead    
686 Zinc    
713 Internal combustion piston engines    
781 Pass. motor vehicles excl. buses    
784 Motor vehicle parts & access, nes    
882 Photo, cinema supplies    
931 Specials transactions    
971 Gold, non monetary, nes    

Index Formulae

The real exchange rate indices estimated in this paper provide a summary measure of the real value of the Australian dollar. A rise in the indices implies an increase in the value of the real exchange rate, or a loss of competitiveness. Each exchange rate index is calculated according to the formula:

where Π denotes the product of the bracketed terms over 1 trading partners,
  CPIAUS t is the level of the CPI in Australia at time t,
  CPIjt is the level of the CPI in country j at time t,
  Ejt is the number of foreign currency units for country j per Australian dollar at time t,
  EJ0 is the number of foreign currency units for country j per Australian dollar in the base period,
  wj is the weight of country j.
Splicing

The spliced series are calculated by estimating the real exchange rate using 1960, 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 weights. These six series are chained together with the links equal to the ratio of the geometric averages of the calendar year of the link. For instance, observations from 1965:1 to 1969:4 for the spliced series are equal to the 1965 series multiplied by the splicing factor for 1965. The splicing factor equals the geometric average of the 1965 observations of the 1960 weighted series, divided by the geometric average of the observations of the 1965 weighted series. Similarly, observations for 1985 are equal to the weighted series multiplied by the 1965, 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 splicing factors.

Nominal Measures

A set of nominal exchange rate indices were estimated using the five different weighting schemes. These nominal indices are similar to the TWI published by the Reserve Bank of Australia, but are estimated quarterly using consistent weights from 1960 to 1989. A comparison of several summary measures of the nominal exchange rate is presented in Table A.3.

Table A.3 Measures of the Nominal Exchange Rate
(percentage change)
Period MA 3rd Country MERM TWI
Mar Q 84 to Sep Q 86 −39.4 −35.7 −40.1 −38.5
Sept Q 86 to Dec Q 89 +15.9 +14.5 +17.4 +17.7
Mar Q 84 to Dec Q 89 −29.8 −26.3 −29.7 −27.6

The nominal effective exchange rate index estimated by the IMF is based on its Multilateral Exchange Rate Model (MERM). The weights in the index are based on MERM estimates of the trade balance effects of a one percent change in the domestic currency price of each of 18 other currencies. The weights are based on trade flows in 1977, whilst the index has 1980 as the base year.[20] The index is calculated as a geometric weighted average of nominal exchange rates.

The TWI is calculated by the Reserve Bank of Australia as a trade weighted average of exchange rates with Australia's major trading partners. Since 1984 trade weights have been changed annually, in October, to reflect trade shares over the previous financial year. The index was calculated using an arithmetic averaging technique prior to October 1988, based on trade shares with 20 groups of trading partners. There are several breaks in the TWI series. Since 1988, the TWI has been calculated as a geometric trade weighted average of exchange rates, based on bilateral trade shares with countries making up 90 percent of our total trade (presently 24 countries).[21]

Table A.3 shows the behaviour since the float of several measures of Australia's nominal exchange rate. A comparison of Tables 4 and A.3 show that the range of changes in the measures of the nominal exchange rate is much smaller than the range for the real exchange rate. This can be explained by the substantial divergences in price levels which occurred over this period, which were magnified by the different weights used for the indices.

Data

Exchange rate and CPI data used in this paper are quarterly figures from the International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics. Period average exchange rate figures are used for all countries from 1960:1 to 1989:4. Australian CPI data are ‘Medicare adjusted’ figures. CPI data for China are quarterly averages of annual figures. Quarterly CPI data for Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, South. Korea, Singapore, and Papua New Guinea are unavailable prior to 1971. Index figures for these countries prior to 1971 are based on geometric averages of annual CPI data.[22] Figures after 1971 include all 22 countries.

Export weights for the aggregate bilateral index are calculated using annual export figures for financial years 1956/57 to 1989/90 from Australian Yearbooks (various issues). More recent export data are from Exports, Australia Annual Summary Tables (ABS Cat. No. 5424.0). Figures for 1989/90 are based on the ten months to April 1990, from Exports, Australia Monthly Summary Tables, January 1990 (ABS Cat. No. 5432.0). Geometric averages are applied to annual figures to derive quarterly figures. Moving average export weights are centred five yearly moving averages of annual figures. Moving average figures for 1988/89 are 3 year centred moving averages, whilst figures for 1989/90 are annual averages of 1988/89–1989/90.[23]

Data used in calculation of the third country export weights are collected from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics, 1987.

Table A.1 Selected Exchange Rate Measures
  Real Export Weighted Nominal Export Weighted
Date Ann. MA Spl. 80/89 3rd Ann. MA Spl. 80/89 3rd
Mar-60 103.3 102.1 104.9 115.3 102.9 77.4 77.7 93.4 104.3 96.7
Jun-60 104.9 103.0 106.1 114.8 104.5 78.7 78.8 94.1 105.0 97.9
Sep-60 105.6 103.2 106.6 115.1 105.4 79.5 79.2 94.1 105.0 97.8
Dec-60 105.5 103.0 106.7 115.3 105.4 80.3 79.6 94.1 105.0 98.0
Mar-61 105.1 102.6 106.6 114.9 106.0 81.1 80.0 94.1 104.9 98.1
Jun-61 104.4 102.1 106.5 114.8 106.3 81.8 80.3 93.9 104.8 97.8
Sep-61 101.6 100.2 104.9 112.9 106.1 82.3 80.9 94.0 104.9 98.7
Dec-61 98.5 98.1 103.0 110.6 105.1 82.7 81.3 94.0 104.9 98.8
Mar-62 96.6 97.0 102.2 109.9 104.8 83.1 81.8 94.1 104.9 99.1
Jun-62 94.2 95.6 101.0 108.8 104.6 83.4 82.2 94.1 105.0 99.7
Sep-62 93.6 94.7 100.5 108.2 104.4 83.5 82.6 94.1 105.0 99.9
Dec-62 93.5 94.3 100.6 107.9 104.3 83.5 82.9 94.1 105.0 99.9
Mar-63 92.0 92.5 98.9 105.7 103.3 83.5 83.2 94.1 105.0 99.9
Jun-63 98.7 93.2 99.1 110.7 102.7 78.7 82.2 93.3 100.0 99.9
Sep-63 96.2 93.1 99.4 110.3 102.5 80.9 82.4 93.3 100.0 99.9
Dec-63 94.1 92.2 98.5 109.1 101.9 82.4 82.7 93.3 100.0 99.9
Mar-64 93.5 92.2 98.2 108.9 102.1 83.5 82.9 93.3 100.0 99.9
Jun-64 93.2 92.1 97.9 108.4 102.2 84.3 83.1 93.3 100.0 99.9
Sep-64 93.6 92.8 98.3 108.3 103.0 84.2 83.4 93.3 100.0 99.9
Dec-64 93.3 92.7 97.9 107.2 103.3 84.1 83.7 93.3 100.0 99.9
Mar-65 92.9 92.7 98.2 106.2 103.3 84.0 84.0 93.6 100.0 99.9
Jun-65 92.3 92.5 97.8 105.3 103.3 83.9 84.4 93.6 100.0 99.9
Sep-65 93.6 93.2 98.3 105.8 103.7 84.6 84.9 93.6 100.0 99.9
Dec-65 94.9 93.8 98.7 106.0 104.3 85.1 85.3 93.6 100.0 99.9
Mar-66 95.0 93.4 98.1 105.1 103.5 85.7 85.7 93.6 100.0 99.9
Jun-66 95.5 93.4 98.0 104.1 103.0 86.2 86.2 93.7 94.8 98.4
Sep-66 95.7 93.9 98.2 103.7 102.7 87.2 87.1 94.3 95.1 98.4
Dec-66 95.9 94.3 98.3 103.3 102.9 87.9 87.6 94.3 95.1 98.4
Mar-67 95.8 94.5 98.2 102.5 102.9 88.6 88.1 94.3 95.1 98.4
Jun-67 95.9 95.1 98.2 102.4 102.9 89.3 88.6 94.3 95.1 98.4
Sep-67 96.9 96.5 99.2 102.8 103.4 89.8 89.2 94.3 95.2 98.4
Dec-67 97.2 97.2 99.9 102.4 103.6 91.5 91.1 96.0 96.4 99.1
Mar-68 99.2 99.5 102.8 103.5 104.2 94.8 94.5 99.7 98.8 100.6
Jun-68 99.3 99.8 102.8 103.5 104.2 95.2 95.0 99.7 99.0 100.6
Sep-68 100.3 99.7 102.6 103.0 103.6 96.0 95.6 99.7 99.2 100.6
Dec-68 101.1 99.7 102.2 102.8 103.3 96.7 96.2 99.7 99.3 100.6
Mar-69 101.9 100.0 102.1 102.7 102.9 97.4 96.8 99.7 99.4 100.6
Jun-69 102.0 99.8 101.4 102.0 102.0 98.1 97.4 99.7 99.4 100.6
Sep-69 101.4 99.9 101.4 101.2 102.0 98.7 98.3 100.2 99.7 101.2
Dec-69 100.8 100.0 101.1 100.9 101.7 98.9 98.8 100.1 99.8 101.0
Mar-70 99.4 99.4 100.1 99.9 100.7 99.0 99.2 100.0 99.8 100.8
Jun-70 99.1 99.9 100.1 100.1 100.4 99.3 99.8 100.1 100.1 100.5
Sep-70 100.2 100.2 99.9 100.0 99.2 100.3 100.2 100.0 100.1 99.4
Dec-70 101.4 100.6 99.9 100.0 99.7 101.4 100.7 100.0 100.1 99.4
Mar-71 99.8 98.6 97.6 98.6 99.3 100.3 99.3 98.1 99.1 99.1
Jun-71 100.8 99.0 97.7 99.0 99.4 101.1 99.7 98.0 99.1 99.0
Sep-71 101.7 99.9 98.2 100.2 100.5 101.2 100.0 97.9 99.6 99.6
Dec-71 102.4 100.5 98.7 100.9 102.7 100.5 99.5 97.2 99.0 100.3
Mar-72 101.0 99.2 97.1 99.2 102.9 99.1 98.4 95.7 97.5 100.7
Jun-72 100.2 98.4 96.1 98.2 101.9 98.7 98.4 95.3 97.3 100.1
Sep-72 101.1 99.3 96.9 98.5 102.2 99.4 99.3 95.8 97.3 100.2
Dec-72 101.5 99.8 97.2 98.8 102.6 100.6 100.5 96.7 97.9 100.9
Mar-73 109.9 107.9 105.2 106.6 114.1 109.1 108.9 104.7 105.9 111.7
Jun-73 109.9 107.8 105.4 106.7 117.3 109.6 109.2 104.9 106.2 114.0
Sep-73 110.2 108.0 105.8 106.6 117.5 109.9 109.1 104.8 105.8 113.1
Dec-73 116.6 114.3 112.2 112.5 124.4 116.8 115.6 110.9 111.7 118.4
Mar-74 116.7 114.7 112.9 111.9 125.7 121.9 120.5 115.2 115.8 121.0
Jun-74 112.9 111.4 109.7 109.3 124.1 118.4 117.2 111.8 112.7 118.3
Sep-74 116.7 115.6 113.7 113.0 127.1 120.2 119.7 113.5 114.4 118.8
Dec-74 104.9 104.2 102.6 102.1 114.7 107.8 107.9 102.2 103.0 106.4
Mar-75 105.8 105.6 103.7 104.0 117.4 107.4 108.2 102.4 103.7 107.6
Jun-75 105.7 105.8 104.0 104.3 118.6 106.6 108.0 102.2 103.3 107.6
Sep-75 105.0 104.7 103.1 103.0 115.9 107.7 108.2 102.4 103.2 106.9
Dec-75 108.6 107.9 106.5 106.2 118.5 108.4 108.3 102.4 103.0 105.8
Mar-76 109.5 108.5 107.2 107.0 119.3 108.9 108.1 102.3 102.9 105.2
Jun-76 108.6 107.4 106.4 106.1 118.5 108.5 107.1 101.5 101.9 104.0
Sep-76 108.9 107.3 106.5 106.3 119.9 107.8 106.3 100.9 101.4 104.5
Dec-76 107.1 105.1 104.6 104.4 117.9 101.8 100.4 95.4 95.8 98.7
Mar-77 99.3 97.1 96.9 96.7 111.1 94.2 92.8 88.4 88.8 92.9
Jun-77 98.8 96.6 96.4 96.5 112.2 93.6 92.4 88.1 88.6 93.9
Sep-77 97.6 95.8 95.8 95.8 112.6 92.2 91.2 87.1 87.7 94.0
Dec-77 95.7 94.5 94.5 94.9 114.3 89.6 88.8 85.0 85.8 94.6
Mar-78 93.3 92.7 92.7 93.3 113.3 87.4 87.0 83.3 84.3 94.1
Jun-78 90.1 90.2 90.5 91.3 112.3 84.7 84.6 81.3 82.4 93.6
Sep-78 86.7 86.2 86.7 87.7 111.5 80.6 80.4 77.4 78.8 92.9
Dec-78 87.1 86.1 86.7 87.7 111.6 79.7 79.4 76.6 78.0 92.4
Mar-79 88.2 86.9 87.5 88.2 109.7 80.0 79.7 77.0 78.2 91.2
Jun-79 89.4 87.7 88.4 88.9 107.8 80.8 80.6 77.8 79.0 89.9
Sep-79 89.8 88.3 89.0 89.6 108.6 81.5 81.2 78.5 79.8 90.9
Dec-79 90.9 89.8 90.8 90.9 107.7 82.2 82.1 79.6 80.5 89.7
Mar-80 90.3 89.6 90.4 90.9 106.6 82.5 82.6 79.8 81.3 89.7
Jun-80 90.1 89.9 90.7 91.3 108.6 82.8 83.2 80.4 82.0 91.7
Sep-80 90.6 90.2 90.9 91.5 110.2 83.4 83.5 80.7 82.5 93.4
Dec-80 91.2 90.5 91.3 91.9 112.4 84.0 84.0 81.1 83.0 95.6
Mar-81 92.5 91.6 92.5 93.0 114.4 85.1 84.8 82.1 84.0 97.7
Jun-81 95.5 94.5 95.6 95.9 115.7 88.0 87.6 84.9 86.7 99.3
Sep-81 99.7 98.6 100.0 100.1 118.5 91.6 91.2 88.5 90.3 102.2
Dec-81 100.0 98.8 100.2 100.4 118.4 89.6 89.2 86.5 88.3 100.0
Mar-82 98.7 97.5 98.8 99.0 115.3 87.8 87.5 84.8 86.5 97.3
Jun-82 98.8 97.7 99.0 99.1 113.9 87.1 86.9 84.2 85.9 96.0
Sep-82 98.3 97.2 98.6 98.6 111.2 84.9 84.7 82.1 83.7 92.2
Dec-82 98.1 97.0 98.3 98.4 109.8 83.2 83.0 80.3 82.0 89.4
Mar-83 95.9 94.7 96.0 96.1 109.5 80.1 79.8 77.2 78.8 87.6
Jun-83 91.9 90.8 91.8 92.0 103.9 76.1 75.8 73.2 74.8 82.5
Sep-83 95.7 94.4 95.4 95.6 107.0 78.4 78.0 75.3 77.0 84.5
Dec-83 99.7 98.1 99.1 99.4 112.3 80.7 80.1 77.2 79.0 87.5
Mar-84 102.3 100.5 101.6 101.9 115.7 82.7 81.9 79.1 80.9 90.0
Jun-84 100.0 98.1 99.2 99.4 113.4 80.7 79.8 77.1 78.8 88.2
Sep-84 98.4 96.7 97.9 98.0 110.3 78.9 78.2 75.7 77.2 85.6
Dec-84 101.8 100.3 101.8 101.6 113.7 81.3 80.7 78.3 79.7 87.9
Mar-85 94.3 93.2 94.3 94.4 104.6 75.0 74.6 72.3 73.7 80.7
Jun-85 83.0 82.1 83.2 83.2 92.4 65.3 65.1 63.1 64.3 70.6
Sep-85 85.1 84.1 85.3 85.2 94.8 65.9 65.7 63.7 64.9 71.4
Dec-85 79.8 78.9 79.9 79.9 91.1 61.0 60.8 59.0 60.0 67.8
Mar-86 79.6 78.8 79.9 79.8 92.7 39.8 59.7 57.9 58.9 67.9
Jun-86 78.0 77.5 78.5 78.5 93.1 58.1 58.2 56.4 57.4 67.4
Sep-86 68.3 67.6 68.5 68.4 81.6 49.6 49.6 48.1 48.9 57.9
Dec-86 73.4 72.5 73.5 73.5 86.1 52.4 52.2 50.6 51.6 60.1
Mar-87 74.7 73.6 74.7 74.6 86.9 52.5 52.1 50.6 51.5 60.0
Jun-87 76.7 75.5 76.6 76.5 90.9 53.9 53.4 51.8 52.7 62.7
Sep-87 77.9 76.7 77.9 77.8 91.8 54.2 53.7 52.2 53.1 62.8
Dec-87 74.1 73.0 74.2 74.0 88.6 51.2 50.7 49.2 50.1 60.0
Mar-88 74.6 73.4 74.6 74.4 89.6 50.9 50.4 48.9 49.8 60.0
Jun-88 80.4 79.1 80.3 80.1 96.7 54.6 54.0 52.4 53.3 64.3
Sep-88 86.5 85.3 86.6 86.5 103.1 58.2 57.8 56.0 57.0 68.0
Dec-88 88.7 87.6 88.8 88.7 107.4 59.0 58.7 56.9 57.9 70.0
Mar-89 90.8 89.7 91.1 91.0 109.4 60.2 60.0 58.2 59.3 71.3
Jun-89 86.4 85.5 86.9 86.9 103.3 57.0 56.8 55.2 56.3 66.8
Sep-89 87.0 85.9 87.5 87.5 102.9 56.6 56.4 54.8 55.9 65.7
Dec-89 89.6 88.3 90.1 90.0 104.8 57.7 57.5 56.0 571 66.3
Table A.2 Selected Exchange Rate Measures
  Real Trade Weighted Nominal Trade Weighted
Date Ann. MA Spl. 80/89 Ann. MA Spl. 80/89
Mar-60 101.9 101.1 104.4 112.9 79.6 79.6 94.9 102.3
Jun-60 103.5 102.4 105.9 112.7 80.7 80.5 95.4 103.0
Sep-60 104.0 102.9 106.5 113.2 81.4 81.0 95.4 103.0
Dec-60 103.9 102.8 106.6 113.3 82.1 81.5 95.5 103.0
Mar-61 103.6 102.7 106.6 113.1 82.7 81.9 95.4 103.0
Jun-61 103.2 102.4 106.5 112.9 83.3 82.1 95.1 102.7
Sep-61 101.4 100.8 105.0 111.2 83.8 82.6 95.3 102.8
Dec-61 99.4 99.1 103.4 109.3 84.2 83.1 95.3 102.9
Mar-62 98.3 98.3 102.6 108.5 84.7 83.5 95.3 102.9
Jun-62 96.6 97.0 101.3 107.5 85.2 84.0 95.4 102.9
Sep-62 96.0 96.4 101.0 107.0 85.1 84.4 95.4 103.0
Dec-62 96.0 96.4 101.3 106.7 84.9 84.7 95.4 103.0
Mar-63 94.6 94.9 99.8 104.8 84.7 85.0 95.4 103.0
Jun-63 101.7 99.0 104.5 108.9 80.0 82.4 91.8 98.9
Sep-63 100.2 98.9 104.6 108.6 81.5 82.7 91.8 98.9
Dec-63 98.5 97.8 103.4 107.4 82.6 82.9 91.8 98.9
Mar-64 97.9 97.5 102.8 107.3 83.6 83.2 91.8 98.9
Jun-64 97.4 97.1 102.2 106.9 84.5 83.5 91.8 98.9
Sep-64 97.5 97.3 102.1 107.0 84.5 83.7 91.8 98.9
Dec-64 96.9 96.8 101.2 106.2 84.6 84.1 91.8 98.9
Mar-65 96.3 96.3 100.5 105.4 84.8 84.4 93.0 98.9
Jun-65 95.4 95.5 99.6 104.5 84.9 84.9 93.0 98.9
Sep-65 96.3 96.1 100.0 105.0 85.3 85.3 93.0 98.9
Dec-65 97.3 96.6 100.5 105.3 85.7 85.8 93.0 98.9
Mar-66 97.0 96.1 99.8 104.5 86.1 86.2 93.0 98.9
Jun-66 97.1 96.0 99.5 103.7 86.6 86.7 93.2 95.5
Sep-66 97.0 96.1 99.5 103.3 87.4 87.5 93.7 95.8
Dec-66 97.0 96.2 99.4 103.1 87.9 87.9 93.7 95.8
Mar-67 96.9 96.3 99.2 102.4 88.5 88.3 93.7 95.8
Jun-67 96.8 96.5 99.0 102.4 89.0 88.7 93.7 95.8
Sep-67 97.7 97.6 99.8 102.9 89.5 89.2 93.7 95.8
Dec-67 98.3 98.4 100.6 102.6 91.5 91.3 95.6 97.0
Mar-68 100.7 100.9 103.5 103.7 95.1 95.0 99.6 99.3
Jun-68 100.7 101.0 103.3 103.6 95.6 95.6 99.8 99.5
Sep-68 101.1 100.9 103.1 103.1 96.2 96.1 99.9 99.6
Dec-68 101.4 100.8 102.8 102.9 96.8 96.7 99.9 99.7
Mar-69 101.8 100.9 102.5 102.8 97.4 97.2 99.9 99.8
Jun-69 101.5 100.4 101.7 102.1 97.9 97.7 99.9 99.8
Sep-69 101.2 100.5 101.7 101.4 98.6 98.5 100.3 100.0
Dec-69 100.7 100.3 101.2 100.9 98.9 98.8 100.1 99.9
Mar-70 99.7 99.6 100.2 99.9 99.1 99.2 100.0 99.8
Jun-70 99.6 99.9 100.1 100.1 99.6 99.8 100.1 100.1
Sep-70 100.0 100.0 99.8 99.9 100.3 100.2 100.0 100.0
Dec-70 100.8 100.5 99.9 100.1 101.0 100.8 99.9 100.1
Mar-71 99.7 99.3 98.4 99.0 100.7 100.4 99.0 99.5
Jun-71 100.1 99.6 98.3 99.4 101.1 100.7 98.8 99.4
Sep-71 101.2 100.5 98.9 100.5 101.6 101.2 98.8 99.8
Dec-71 102.5 101.7 99.9 101.5 101.6 101.3 98.5 99.5
Mar-72 101.6 100.6 98.7 100.0 100.8 100.6 97.5 98.3
Jun-72 100.9 99.9 97.8 99.1 100.8 100.7 97.1 98.0
Sep-72 102.3 101.1 99.0 99.5 102.1 102.0 98.1 98.1
Dec-72 103.1 101.8 99.5 99.9 103.7 103.4 99.2 98.9
Mar-73 112.3 110.7 108.5 108.2 113.2 112.7 108.1 107.4
Jun-73 113.0 111.2 109.3 108.8 114.0 113.4 108.8 107.9
Sep-73 113.2 111.6 110.1 108.7 114.2 113.2 108.6 107.3
Dec-73 119.9 118.6 117.1 114.9 121.5 120.3 115.1 113.4
Mar-74 120.2 119.3 118.2 114.6 126.4 125.2 119.3 117.4
Jun-74 116.5 116.1 114.9 112.1 122.6 121.6 115.6 1.14.3
Sep-74 120.3 120.1 118.7 115.7 124.1 123.7 117.0 115.8
Dec-74 107.9 107.9 106.7 104.1 110.8 111.1 104.9 103.7
Mar-75 108.8 109.1 107.4 105.7 110.5 111.4 105.2 104.3
Jun-75 108.7 109.3 107.7 106.1 110.0 111.5 105.2 104.0
Sep-75 107.9 108.0 106.6 104.6 110.9 111.7 105.4 103.7
Dec-75 111.4 111.3 109.9 107.7 111.4 111.6 105.2 103.4
Mar-76 112.5 112.0 110.7 108.6 111.9 111.5 105.2 103.3
Jun-76 112.1 111.4 110.5 107.9 112.0 111.0 104.9 102.5
Sep-76 112.6 111.7 111.0 108.4 111.7 110.6 104.6 102.2
Dec-76 110.5 109.4 109.0 106.2 105.6 104.5 99.0 96.5
Mar-77 102.2 101.1 100.8 98.5 97.7 96.8 91.7 89.5
Jun-77 102.0 100.9 100.6 98.5 97.6 96.6 91.7 89.6
Sep-77 101.2 100.3 100.2 98.0 96.4 95.7 90.9 88.8
Dec-77 100.1 99.5 99.4 97.5 94.3 93.8 89.2 87.3
Mar-78 97.8 97.5 97.4 95.9 92.1 91.8 87.3 85.8
Jun-78 95.6 95.7 95.8 94.2 90.1 90.1 85.9 84.2
Sep-78 92.5 92.3 92.4 91.0 86.5 86.3 82.4 81.0
Dec-78 92.6 92.0 92.0 90.8 85.4 85.2 81.3 80.1
Mar-79 92.9 92.1 92.1 90.9 85.2 85.1 81.1 80.0
Jun-79 93.3 92.3 92.3 91.2 85.5 85.5 81.4 80.4
Sep-79 93.3 92.5 92.2 91.5 85.9 85.9 81.7 81.0
Dec-79 93.9 93.4 93.3 92.4 86.1 86.3 82.2 81.4
Mar-80 93.0 92.8 92.3 92.0 86.1 86.6 82.1 81.8
Jun-80 93.4 93.4 93.0 92.6 86.9 87.5 83.0 82.8
Sep-80 94.1 94.0 93.5 93.1 87.9 88.2 83.6 83.4
Dec-80 94.9 94.7 94.2 93.8 88.9 89.0 84.4 84.2
Mar-81 96.3 96.0 95.6 95.2 90.4 90.3 85.6 85.4
Jun-81 99.0 98.7 98.5 97.9 93.2 93.0 88.3 88.0
Sep-81 103.2 102.9 102.8 102.1 97.0 96.8 92.1 91.7
Dec-81 103.6 103.2 103.1 102.4 94.9 94.7 90.0 89.7
Mar-82 101.8 101.5 101.3 100.7 92.7 92.6 88.0 87.7
Jun-82 101.6 101.3 101.1 100.5 91.7 91.8 87.1 86.8
Sep-82 100.8 100.6 100.2 99.7 89.0 89.1 84.5 84.3
Dec-82 100.7 100.5 100.2 99.6 87.3 87.4 82.9 82.7
Mar-83 99.1 98.9 98.7 97.8 84.5 84.6 80.3 79.9
Jun-83 94.8 94.5 94.1 93.4 80.2 80.2 76.0 75.6
Sep-83 98.8 98.2 97.7 97.0 82.7 82.5 78.1 77.8
Dec-83 103.4 102.5 101.9 101.2 85.4 85.0 80.5 80.1
Mar 84 106.3 105.2 104.6 103.8 87.6 87.1 82.5 82.1
Jun-84 104.0 102.7 102.2 101.2 85.6 85.0 80.5 80.0
Sep-84 101.9 100.9 100.2 99.3 83.4 82.9 78.5 78.0
Dec-84 105.4 104.7 104.1 102.9 85.9 85.6 81.1 80.5
Mar-85 97.7 97.2 96.5 95.5 79.2 79.1 74.9 74.3
Jun-85 85.8 85.4 84.8 83.9 68.8 68.8 65.2 64.6
Sep-85 88.1 87.6 86.9 86.0 69.6 69.4 65.8 65.2
Dec-85 82.8 82.4 81.7 80.9 64.5 64.4 61.0 60.5
Mar-86 82.8 82.4 81.7 81.0 63.3 63.3 59.9 59.5
Jun-86 81.5 81.3 80.6 80.0 61.7 61.9 58.5 58.2
Sep-86 71.0 70.9 70.2 69.8 52.5 52.7 49.7 49.6
Dec-86 76.2 75.9 75.2 74.8 55.3 55.3 52.3 52.1
Mar-87 77.3 76.9 76.3 75.8 55.2 55.2 52.7 52.0
Jun-87 79.7 79.2 78.5 78.1 56.9 56.7 53.6 53.5
Sep-87 81.1 80.5 79.9 79.4 57.4 57.1 54.0 53.9
Dec-87 77.4 76.7 76.1 75.7 54.2 53.9 50.9 50.8
Mar-88 78.2 77.4 76.7 76.3 54.2 53.8 50.7 50.7
Jun-88 84.6 83.6 82.8 82.4 58.3 57.8 54.4 54.4
Sep-88 91.1 90.4 89.4 88.9 62.3 62.0 58.2 58.2
Dec-88 93.5 92.9 91.9 91.4 63.3 63.1 59.2 59.2
Mar-89 95.7 95.2 94.2 93.7 64.6 64.6 60.6 60.6
Jun-89 91.0 90.7 89.8 89.4 61.0 61.1 57.5 57.4
Sep-89 91.5 91.0 90.4 89.9 60.5 60.5 57.0 56.9
Dec-89 94.0 93.3 92.8 92.2 61.7 61.5 58.0 58.0

Footnotes

The methodology discussed in this section is drawn from McGuirk (1987). [18]

See Artus and McGuirk (1981) T. 7, pp. 305–306 for the MERM weights. [19]

See Artus and McGuirk (1981) for a discussion of the MERM model. [20]

See Reserve Bank of Australia (1984,1988) for details of the calculation of the TWI. [21]

Annual figures for Saudi Arabia are available from 1964. Annual figures for Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea and Singapore are available from 1960, whilst figures for PNG are only available from 1971. [22]

Geometric 17 quarter centred moving averages are used to derive 5 year moving averages, whilst 9 and 5 quarter centred moving averages are used for the 3 and 2 year moving averages. [23]