Research Discussion Paper – RDP 9204 The Term Structure of Interest Rates, Real Activity and Inflation

Contents

• Introduction
• Theory
• The Yield Curve and Real Activity
• The Yield Curve and Changes in Inflation
• Summary and Conclusions
• Appendix 1: Data
• Appendix 2: Derivation of Dynamics
• Appendix 3: Forecasting Ability of Selected Yield Spreads
• References

The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Reserve Bank of Australia.