RDP 1999-10: The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy References

Geoffrey Shuetrim and Christopher Thompson

November 1999

Blinder, A.S. (1995), ‘Central Banking in Theory and Practice: Lecture 1: Targets, Instruments and Stabilization’, Marshall Lecture, presented at the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.

Brainard, W. (1967), ‘Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy’, American Economic Review, 57(2), pp. 411–425.

Clements, M.P. and D.F. Hendry (1993), ‘On the Limitations of Comparing Mean Square Forecast Errors’, Journal of Forecasting, 12(8), pp. 617–637.

Clements, M.P. and D.F. Hendry (1994), ‘Towards a Theory of Economic Forecasting’, in C. Hargreaves (ed.), Non-stationary Time-series Analysis and Cointegration, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 9–52.

Clements, M.P. and D.F. Hendry (1996), ‘Intercept Corrections and Structural Change’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(5), pp. 475–494.

de Brouwer, G. and L. Ellis (1998), ‘Forward-looking Behaviour and Credibility: Some Evidence and Implications for Policy’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No. 9803.

Epstein, L.G. and T. Wang (1994), ‘Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty’, Econometrica, 62(2), pp. 283–322.

Harvey, A.C. (1989), Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Knight, F.H. (1921), Risk, Uncertainty and Profit, Houghton Mifflin Co., Boston.

Kremers, J.M., N.R. Ericsson and J.J. Dolado (1992), ‘The Power of Cointegration Tests’, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54(3), pp. 325–348.

Kwakernaak, H. and R. Sivan (1972), Linear Optimal Control Systems, Wiley, New York.

Lowe, P. and L. Ellis (1997), ‘The Smoothing of Official Interest Rates’, in P. Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, pp. 286–312.

Orphanides, A. (1998), ‘Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information’, Federal Reserve System Finance and Economics Discussion Paper No. 1998/50.

Sack, B. (1997), ‘Uncertainty and Gradual Monetary Policy’, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, mimeo.