RDP 2000-02: Forecasting Australian Economic Activity Using Leading Indicators Appendix A: Data

Andrea Brischetto and Graham Voss

April 2000

ABS Experimental Composite Leading Indicator
Definition: Composite leading indicator of economic activity with eight component series.
Units: 0 = long-term trend rate of economic growth.
Source: Australian Economic Indicators, ABS Cat No 1350.0.
Consensus Forecasts of US GDP
Definition: Consensus forecasts of real US GDP.
Units: Quarterly growth rate in percentage points.
Source: Consensus Forecasts, Consensus Economics Inc, London.
Employment
Definition: Total employed persons (seasonally adjusted).
Units: Thousands.
Source: Spliced series using ABS Cat No 6204.0 for 1966–1977 (seasonally adjusted using EZX-11) and ABS Cat No 6203.0, Table 2 for 1978–1999.
NATSTAT Leading Indicator
Definition: Composite leading indicator of economic activity with seven component series.
Units: 100 = long-term trend rate of economic growth.
Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research NATSTAT Leading Indicators release. We are grateful to Jeremy Rothfield for providing us with an electronic copy of this series.
Official Cash Rate
Definition: Unofficial cash rate.
Units: Annual interest rate (not in percentage terms).
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.
Real GDP
Definition: Real GDP.
Units: $m (sa) annually chain linked, reference year for prices 1996/97.
Source: Australian National Accounts, ABS Cat No 5206.0, Table 5.
Southern Oscillation Index
Definition: Difference in the sea level barometric pressure between Darwin and Tahiti.
Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Underlying Consumer Price Index
Definition: Treasury Underlying Consumer Price Index.
Units: 1989/90 = 100.
Source: Consumer Price Index, ABS Cat No 6401.0, Table 11. NB This series is not seasonally adjusted but has little or no seasonal component.
Unemployment
Definition: Unemployment rate.
Units: Percentage (seasonally adjusted).
Source: Spliced series using the NIF Database for 1959–1977 and ABS Cat No 6203.0, Table 2 for 1978–1999.
US Real GDP
Definition: Real GDP.
Units: 1992 $b (sa).
Source: Datastream, USGDP…D.
Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index
Definition: Composite leading indicator of economic activity with nine component series.
Source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity Report. We are grateful to Don Harding from the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research for providing us with an electronic copy of this series.