RDP 2005-01: Long-Term Patterns in Australia's Terms of Trade Appendix A: Data Sources

Christian Gillitzer and Jonathan Kearns

April 2005

Table A1 contains a list of data sources for the aggregate level data series. All data are in Australian dollars.

Table A1: Data Sources – Aggregate Level Data
Series Data source Sample
Export and import prices Vamplew (1987), Table ITFC81–83 1870–1901
  Butlin (1977), R7701.2H, R7701.2I 1901–1959
  CBCS, Balance of payments (for goods) 1949–1959
  ABS Cat No 5302.0 1959–2004
World commodity prices GYCPI 1900–1987
  GYCPI updated by the IMF 1988–1998
  Updated by authors using IMF IFS data 1999–2004(a)
World manufactures prices Grilli-Yang modified UN MUV series 1900–1987
  Modified UN MUV updated by the IMF 1988–1998
  IMF MUV series 1999–2003
Import shares by country ABS Cat No 5302.0 1969–2004
ETMs prices ABS Cat No 5302.0 1986–2004
A$/US$ exchange rate Butlin (1977) R7701.19B 1901–1969
  RBA Bulletin Table F.11 1970–2004
Export values CBCS Overseas Trade and earlier titles 1908–1975
  ABS Cat No 5302.0 1975–2004
Notes: (a) Data for 2004 are an average of the months to November.
Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Commonwealth Bureau of Census and Statistics (CBCS), elaborately transformed manufactures (ETM), Grilli-Yang commodity price index (GYCPI), International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS), manufactures unit value (MUV). World commodity and manufactures price data and data from Vamplew (1987) are for calendar years. All other data are for financial years, except for export values data which are for calendar years until 1913. World commodity and manufactures price data were converted to Australian dollars using year-ended exchange rates until 1969 and calendar year average exchange rates thereafter.

The forecast goods and services terms of trade data in Figure 1 for 2004/05 and 2005/06 were constructed using known contract prices for some major commodity exports, holding all other factors, including import prices, constant. The 2004/05 value is an average of actual data for the September and December quarters 2004, the December quarter 2005 in place of the March quarter 2005 and a forecast for the June quarter 2005. Because contract prices for major commodity exports are set on an annual basis, the June quarter 2005 value was held constant as the forecast for the terms of trade in 2006.

Table A2 lists the data sources used to re-construct Australia's export price series for subsets of goods exports. The weighting method and re-basing pattern shown in Table A2 was used to aggregate the components for each sub-aggregate export price series constructed. After 1975, the index type and re-basing pattern recreates the ABS's export price implicit price deflator. Before 1975, sub-component export price data were only available from the ‘Export Price Index’ release. These data and the weighting scheme were used as a proxy for the data and weighting used by the ABS and CBCS export price implicit price deflator. Before 1975, the reconstructed series is a fixed base price index.

Table A2: Data Sources – Export Price Series by Component
Sample Data source Index type Export value weights
1904–1928/29 CBCS Monthly index of export prices 1928–1937 Fixed base Average 1904–1915/16
1929/30–1935/36 CBCS Monthly index of export prices 1928–1937 Fixed base 1928
1936/37–1959/60 CBCS Export price index (various) Fixed base Average 1933/34–1935/36
1960/61–1968/69 CBCS Export price index (various) Fixed base Average 1956/57–1960/61
1969/70–1974/75 ABS/CBCS Export price index (various) Fixed base 1969/70
1975/76–1985/86 ABS Cat No 5302.0 Paasche 1984/85 quantity weights
1986/87–2003/04 ABS Cat No 5302.0 Paasche Annually re-weighted

From 1901–1935/36, the export price index consists of five component price series: agricultural, pastoral, dairy, mineral and miscellaneous. From 1936/37 to 1959/60, the export price index includes: meat, butter, wheat, dried fruits, sugar, hides, tallow, wool, metals and gold. From 1959/60 to 1974/75, it comprises: meat, dairy, cereals, dried & canned fruit, sugar, hides & tallow, wool, metals & coal and gold. After 1974/75, export data at the 2-digit Statistical International Trade Classification (SITC) level were used.

Table A3 contains a list of the commodities included in the construction of the fixed-weight commodity price index, the data sources for their prices and each commodity's average share of goods exports over the period 1905–2000.

Table A3: Commodities Included in the Fixed-weight Commodity Price Index
Commodity prices constructed from Australian sources
Commodity Average export share 1905–2000 (per cent) Data source Sample
Butter 3.36 CBCS Australian year book (various) 1913–1936
    CBCS Export price index 1937–1947
    IMF IFS 1948–2004
Coal 3.77 CBCS and ABS Australian year book (various) 1901–1961
    The Australian mineral industry review 1965 1962–1966
    IMF IFS 1967–2004
Crude oil 1.63 www.eere.energy.gov 1901–1960
    IMF IFS 1961–2004
Gold 5.78 www.mcalvany.com/historicalgoldprices.asp 1901–2003
    IMF IFS 2004
Wheat 8.76 CBCS Australian year book (various) 1901–1949
    Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1950–1968
    The wheat situation  
    Bureau of Agricultural Economics 1969–1982
    Wheat: situation and outlook  
    RBA Commodity price index 1983–2004
Wool 27.57 CBCS Australian year book (various) 1901–1959
    Bureau of Agricultural Economics The wool outlook 1960–1975
    National council of wool selling brokers Wool review 1976–1982
    RBA Commodity price index 1983–2004
World commodity price data
Data source: Grilli-Yang updated by IMF (1901–1998) and IMF IFS (1999–2004)
Commodity Average export share 1905–2000 (per cent) Commodity Average export share 1905–2000 (per cent)
Aluminium 1.45 Rice 0.21
Beef 3.92 Silver 0.66
Copper 1.44 Sugar 2.24
Cotton 0.26 Timber 0.51
Hide 0.92 Tin 0.38
Lamb 1.17 Zinc 1.11
Lead 2.21    
Notes: All price data are for calendar years except for: butter price data from 1936/37–1946/47, wheat price data 1914/15–1934/35 and 1949/50–2003/04, and wool price data from 1914/15 onward.

Note also, that in constructing Figure 5, data available for 1985/86 for Hong Kong were found to be incorrect. The 1984/85 data were used instead.