Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2013-09 Terms of Trade Shocks and Incomplete Information

Contents

• Introduction
• A Small Open Economy Model
• Estimation
• Response of the Economy to Terms of Trade Shocks
• What Shocks Have Occurred?
• Robustness Checks
• Conclusion
• Appendix A: Data Sources and Definitions
• Appendix B: Steady State and Log-linearised Equations
• Appendix C: Estimation Results – Full Information Model
• References

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This paper was prepared in part as a chapter of my PhD thesis at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I would like to thank Guido Lorenzoni, Ivan Wérning, George-Marios Angeletos, Daron Acemoglu, Isaiah Andrews, Francesco Giavazzi, Alexandra Heath and Christopher Kent for comments and helpful suggestions.