RDP 8302: Economic Forecasts and their Assessment
Data for Diagrams
I.J. Macfarlane and J.R. Hawkins
August 1983
DIAGRAM 1
| |
|
Actual |
Highest Forecast |
Lowest Forcast |
| GDP Growth |
1977 |
1.1 |
|
|
| |
1978 |
2.6 |
6.0 |
2.0 |
| |
1979 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
2.0 |
| |
1980 |
1.6/3.3 |
4.2 |
1.1 |
| |
1981 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
5.0 |
| |
1982 |
−0.3 |
3.5 |
1.9 |
| CPI |
1977 |
9.3 |
|
|
| |
1978 |
8.5 |
9.3 |
6.1 |
| |
1979 |
10.0 |
8.5 |
5.3 |
| |
1980 |
9.2 |
12.0 |
8.0 |
| |
1981 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
9.2 |
| |
1982 |
11.0 |
12.5 |
9.0 |
| Unemployment |
1977 |
333 |
|
|
| |
1978 |
367 |
440 |
325 |
| |
1979 |
415/389 |
445 |
400 |
| |
1980 |
406 |
430 |
350 |
| |
1981 |
350 |
440 |
385 |
| |
1982 |
448 |
445 |
355 |
| Current Account Deficit |
1977 |
2,820 |
|
|
| |
1978 |
3,960 |
2,750 |
1,500 |
| |
1979 |
2,530 |
3,500 |
2,400 |
| |
1980 |
3,640 |
3,800 |
1,300 |
| |
1981 |
7,280 |
4,000 |
2,000 |
| |
1982 |
8,390 |
9,000 |
6,000 |
| Bond Rate |
1977 |
9.50 |
|
|
| |
1978 |
8.80 |
9.80 |
8.00 |
| |
1979 |
10.08 |
8.80 |
8.00 |
| |
1980 |
12.60 |
12.50 |
9.50 |
| |
1981 |
15.00 |
13.75 |
12.00 |
| |
1982 |
14.00 |
15.00 |
13.00 |
DIAGRAM 2(a)
| |
|
Actual |
Forecaster (A) |
Forecaster (B) |
| Year 1 |
|
2.8 |
1.0 |
3 |
| Year 2 |
|
4.0 |
5.3 |
3 |
| Year 3 |
|
1.0 |
3.2 |
3 |
| Year 4 |
|
1.5 |
1.0 |
3 |
| Year 5 |
|
2.8 |
3.5 |
3 |
| Year 6 |
|
4.5 |
6.2 |
3 |
| Root Mean |
|
|
|
|
| Square Error |
|
|
1.5 |
1.3 |
| Mean Absolute |
|
|
|
|
| Error |
|
|
1.4 |
1.1 |
DIAGRAM 2(b)
| |
|
Actual |
Forecaster (A) |
Forecaster (B) |
| Year 1 |
March |
100 |
|
|
| |
June |
100 |
|
|
| |
Sept. |
100 |
|
|
| |
Dec. |
100 |
|
|
| |
|
100 |
|
|
| Year 2 |
March |
101.5 |
|
|
| |
June |
103.0 |
|
|
| |
Sept. |
104.5 |
|
|
| |
Dec. |
106.0 |
|
|
| |
|
103.8 |
|
|
| |
|
(3.8%) |
|
|
| Year 3 |
March |
108.3 |
106.5 |
107.5 |
| |
June |
108.3 |
106.5 |
109.0 |
| |
Sept. |
108.3 |
106.5 |
110.5 |
| |
Dec. |
108.3 |
106.5 |
112.0 |
| |
|
108.3 |
106.5 |
109.8 |
| |
|
(4.3%) |
(1.0%) |
(5.7%) |
