RDP 2001-09: What do Sentiment Surveys Measure? Appendix A: Variables Considered in Section 3

While only some variables are included in the final specifications we searched through a long list of potential explanators. The full list of variables is:

Gross domestic product

Variables: Real GDP, real non-farm GDP and deviation from a Hodrick-Prescott filter (i.e., an output gap).

Units: $m (sa), chain-linked.

Source: ABS Cat No 5206.0, Table 5.

Employment

Variables: Total employed persons and the unemployment rate.

Units: '000 (sa), and percentage (sa), respectively.

Source: ABS Cat No 6202.0, Table 2.

Job vacancies

Variables: ANZ and ABS job vacancies as a percentage of the labour force.

Units: ANZ job vacancies: average number of weekly job advertisements, '000 (sa); ABS job vacancies: '000 (sa); labour force: '000 (sa).

Sources: ANZ Bank Employment Advertisement series (job vacancies); ABS Cat No 6354.0, Table 5 (job vacancies) and ABS Cat No 6202.0, Table 2 (labour force).

Hours worked

Variables: Employed persons – average hours worked.

Units: '000 (sa).

Source: ABS Cat No 6203.0, Table 17.

Consumer spending

Variables: Household final consumption expenditure, and selected components (food, furnishings, vehicles, recreation and culture etc).

Units: $m 1998/99 (sa), chain-linked.

Source: ABS Cat No 5206.0, Table 33.

Exchange rate

Variable: Nominal bilateral US$ exchange rate.

Units: A$/US$.

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Table F.10.

Interest rate

Variables: Nominal cash rate, 90-day bank bill rate, housing loan rates, and 10-year bond rate.

Units: Percentage.

Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Tables F.1, F.2 and F.5.

Stock market

Variable: CPI-deflated All Ordinaries Index

Units: Index.

Sources: Australian Stock Exchange; ABS Cat No 6401.0, Table 8.

Corporate profitability

Variable: Real gross operating surplus of private corporate trading enterprises (adjusted for privatisations).

Units: $m 1998/99 (sa), chain-linked.

Source: ABS Cat No 5206.0, Table 47.