RDP 2013-14: Reserves of Natural Resources in a Small Open Economy Appendix A: Data Sources

Natural resource prices

For the 1976–2011 sample used in our main analysis (Sections 2 to 4), natural resource prices are an export-weighted geometric mean of iron ore, coal, gold and average base metal prices. Average base metal prices reflect an equally weighted geometric mean of aluminium, zinc, copper, lead and nickel prices.

All prices are measured in real terms (deflated by the US GDP deflator). Prices data are sourced from ABARES, Bloomberg, Global Financial Data, IMF, Pfaffenzeller, Newbold and Rayner (2007), RBA and USGS. The export weights used are the 1976–2011 sample averages, which are derived from commodity export shares data calculated by Gillitzer and Kearns (2005).

For the 1900–2011 sample used in Section 5.2, we use an equally weighted geometric mean of real aluminum, zinc, copper, lead and nickel prices.^[30]

All data discussed below are only constructed over the 1976–2011 sample.

Natural resource reserves

Natural resource reserves are an equally weighted geometric mean of reserves for five base metals (aluminium, zinc, copper, lead and nickel), gold, iron ore and coal.^[31] These data are sourced from Geosciences Australia (GA). ABS data are used to construct the 2011 estimate.^[32]

Non-mining GDP

Non-mining GDP is sourced from the ABS and RBA. We use non-farm GDP in chain volume terms, ABS Catalogue No 5206.0, Table 41, less an estimate of mining GDP in chain volume terms. The latter is derived from chain volume estimates of mining investment (ABS Catalogue No 5204.0, Table 64) and resource exports (derived from ABS Catalogue No 5302.0, Table 11). The measure calculated is similar to estimates produced by Rayner and Bishop (2013).

Resource-specific investment

These data are sourced from the ABS Catalogue No 5204.0, Table 64, gross fixed capital formation by industry, by asset. We compute resource-specific investment as the sum of investment in non-dwelling construction and machinery & equipment in the mining sector.

Real exchange rate

We use the real trade-weighted index as sourced from the RBA, Statistical Table F15 Real Exchange Rates Measures.

Inflation

We use a measure of underlying inflation. It is derived from quarterly data on the CPI excluding interest and health policy changes prior to September 1993, the Treasury underlying measure of inflation between September 1993 and September 1998, and the headline CPI excluding interest and tax since September 1998.

Footnotes

We use this simpler proxy for long-run real resource prices over this time frame because there is considerable variation in the export shares of iron ore, coal and gold. Our results are similar when using an equally weighted geometrically weighted average of the real prices of the same five base metals, iron ore and coal. [30]

Using an export-weighted average, based on the same export shares as used for the prices data, led to similar results. [31]

Prior to 1992 data, all measures are based on economically demonstrated reserves only. From 1992 onwards, the measures include economically demonstrated, sub- and para-marginal reserves. [32]