RDP 2021-03: Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia Appendix B: Additional Growth-at-Risk Results
March 2021
- Download the Paper 1,967KB
B.1 Quantile regression coefficient estimates
![Figure B1: Household Consumption – Quantile Regression Coefficient Estimates](images/figure-b1.gif)
Note: Dashed lines represent 95 per cent confidence intervals computed using the stationary bootstrap proposed in Politis and Romano (1994) assuming an average block length of 8 quarters and 1,000 replications
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations
![Figure B2: Unemployment Rate – Quantile Regression Coefficient Estimates](images/figure-b2.gif)
Note: Dashed lines represent 95 per cent confidence intervals computed using the stationary bootstrap proposed in Politis and Romano (1994) assuming an average block length of 8 quarters and 1,000 replications
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations
![Figure B3: Employment – Quantile Regression Coefficient Estimates](images/figure-b3.gif)
Note: Dashed lines represent 95 per cent confidence intervals computed using the stationary bootstrap proposed in Politis and Romano (1994) assuming an average block length of 8 quarters and 1,000 replications
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations
![Figure B4: Business Investment – Quantile Regression Coefficient Estimates](images/figure-b4.gif)
Note: Dashed lines represent 95 per cent confidence intervals computed using the stationary bootstrap proposed in Politis and Romano (1994) assuming an average block length of 8 quarters and 1,000 replications
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations
B.2 Fitted quantile ranges
![Figure B5: Economic Activity – Fitted Quantiles](images/figure-b5.gif)
Notes: ‘HFCE’ is the growth rate of real household final consumption expenditure, actual HFCE quarterly growth rate for 2020:Q2 is –12.1 per cent, actual HFCE year-ended growth rate for 2020:Q2 is –12.8 per cent; ‘UR’ is the change in the total unemployment rate; ‘NMBI’ is the growth rate of real business investment excluding mining investment
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations; RBA
B.3 Downside and upside risk estimates
![Figure B6: Economic Activity – Downside and Upside Risk](images/figure-b6.gif)
Notes: ‘HFCE’ is the growth rate of real household final consumption expenditure, actual HFCE quarterly growth rate for 2020:Q2 is –12.1 per cent, actual HFCE year-ended growth rate for 2020:Q2 is -12.8 per cent; ‘UR’ is the change in the total unemployment rate; ‘NMBI’ is the growth rate of real business investment excluding mining investment; is set equal to 5 per cent; thicker darker-coloured line is estimated with the FCI; thinner lighter-coloured line is estimated without the FCI
Sources: ABS; Authors' calculations; RBA