Research Discussion Paper – RDP 2024-04 Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator
July 2024
Contents
- Introduction
- Monitoring Activity Using a Combination of Targeted Monthly Indicators
- Predicting Quarterly GDP Growth Using the MAI
- Conclusion
- Appendix A: Additional Monthly Activity Indicator Details
- Appendix B: Additional Modelling Results
- References
- Copyright and Disclaimer Notice
We are grateful to Sarah Hunter, Adrian Pagan, Matthew Read, Kalvinder Shields and John Simon, as well as seminar participants at: CAMA/CAMP Workshop at the University of Sydney (November 2023), the Reserve Bank of Australia (July 2023); the Melbourne Institute (June 2023); the University Rovira i Virgili (January 2022); the Sydney Macroeconomic Reading Group Workshop (June 2021); the 2021 Australian Conference for Economists (July 2021); and the ABS Methodology Division Seminar Series (December 2020) for helpful comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank Paula Drew for editorial and publication assistance and Anthony Richards for encouragement and inspiration. We acknowledge important contributions from Angus Moore and Joyce Tan during the early development of this work and Calvin He for implementing the Sahm rule for Australia. Hartigan also acknowledges partial funding support provided by the Australian Research Council (DP230100959). Any remaining errors are solely our own. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Reserve Bank of Australia.