Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2011 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR terms, per cent
Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
Bulk commodities(b)    
– Iron ore −34 −20
– Coking coal −21 6
– Thermal coal −1 12
Rural −3 3
– Beef 4 10
– Cotton −3 −28
– Wheat −4 3
– Wool −10 30
Base metals −14 −11
– Aluminium −12 −12
– Copper −14 −5
– Lead −17 −17
– Nickel −20 −21
– Zinc −15 −19
Gold 8 29
Oil(c) 6 23
– US$ terms 3 23
RBA ICP −4 19

(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices components except oil and bulk commodities; latest available
(b) Spot prices
(c) Average of WTI and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level
Per cent		 Most
recent
change		 Cumulative
increase
Basis points
Euro area 1.50 ↑ Jul 11 50
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 11.50 ↓ Oct 11 –
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 6.56 ↑ Jul 11 125
India 8.50 ↑ Oct 11 375
Indonesia 6.50 ↓ Oct 11 –
Israel 3.00 ↓ Sep 11 –
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 100
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 –
Norway 2.25 ↑ May 11 100
Russia 8.25 ↑ Apr 11 50
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.25 ↑ Jun 11 125
Sweden 2.00 ↑ Jul 11 175
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 –
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 63
Thailand 3.50 ↑ Aug 11 225
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Federal Reserve Holdings of US Treasury Bonds(a)
As at 28 September 2011, par values
Residual maturity
Years		 Federal Reserve
holdings
US$ billion		 Share of total
outstanding
Per cent
0 to 3 517 16
3 to 6 484 25
6 to 8 311 39
8 to 10 94 15
10 to 20 89 33
20 to 30 74 13
Total 1,569 21

(a) Excludes Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

Sources: Bloomberg; Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Table 2.3: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end 2010 Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 2 −1
– S&P 500 −2 −2
– NASDAQ 0 −2
Euro area
– STOXX −18 −9
United Kingdom
– FTSE −7 −2
Japan
– Nikkei −16 −10
Canada
– TSE 300 −9 −4
Australia
– ASX 200 −12 −3
China
– China A −11 −6
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −12 −8
– Latin America −14 2
– Emerging Europe −13 −10
– World −9 −4
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.4: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over past year Since previous
Statement
South African rand 16 19
Swiss franc −10 15
Mexican peso 10 15
Brazilian real 2 12
Indian rupee 11 11
New Zealand dollar −3 9
South Korean won 1 6
Indonesian rupiah 1 6
Singapore dollar −1 6
Malaysian ringgit 2 6
Canadian dollar 1 5
European euro 2 4
Swedish krona 0 4
New Taiwan dollar −1 4
Australian dollar −3 4
Thai baht 3 3
UK pound sterling 1 3
Japanese yen −3 1
Philippine peso 0 1
Chinese renminbi −5 −1
Majors TWI 0 4
Broad TWI 1 5
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.5: Foreign Exchange Reserves
US$ equivalent (billions)
Monthly change Level
Jul–Aug 2011
average		 Sep 2011 As at end
Sep 2011
China 33 −61 3,202
Japan 37 −12 1,123
Russia 6 −24 460
Taiwan 0 −11 389
Brazil(a) 9 −3 341
South Korea 3 −9 296
Thailand 1 −8 170
Indonesia 2 −10 115
South Africa 0 −1 40
Chile(a) 1 1 36

(a) RBA estimates of official reserve assets excluding gold

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA

Table 2.6: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
past year		 Since previous Statement
South African rand 20 14
Swiss franc −7 10
Indian rupee 15 7
New Zealand dollar 1 5
South Korean won 4 2
Indonesian rupiah 4 2
Singapore dollar 2 2
Malaysian ringgit 5 2
Canadian dollar 4 1
European euro 6 0
Thai baht 7 −1
UK pound sterling 4 −1
Japanese yen 0 −3
US dollar 4 −4
Chinese renminbi −1 −5
TWI 3 −1
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Output and Factor Input Growth
Year-average, per cent
2010/11
Domestic final demand 3.5
– Private demand 2.8
– Public demand 2.6
Change in inventories(a) 0.7
GNE 4.2
Net exports(a) −2.0
GDP 2.1
Nominal GDP 8.3
Labour input 3.2
Capital stock 3.8

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
June 2011		 3 months to
September 2011		 Year to
September 2011
Capital cities
ABS(a)(b) −0.5 −1.2 −2.2
APM −2.2 −0.9 −4.3
RP Data-Rismark −0.9 −1.3 −3.4
Regional areas
APM(b) 0.1 −1.1 −1.8
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.1 −1.3 −2.4

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 3.3: Value of LNG Projects Under Construction in 2011(a)
A$ billion
Gorgon 43
Wheatstone 28
Gladstone 16
Pluto 15
Queensland Curtis 15
Australia Pacific 14
Prelude (Floating) 12
North Rankin B 5
Total 146

(a) US dollar-denominated project values converted to Australian dollars at US$1.03

Sources: RBA; publicly available information

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Change Since:
Level at
end October 2011		 August
Statement		 End
October 2010
Housing loans(a) 7.03 −0.01 0.28
Personal loans 13.07 −0.03 0.27
Small business
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 8.99 0.00 0.40
– Overdraft 9.86 0.00 0.40
Average rate(b) 8.81 0.00 0.29
Large business
Average rate(b)
(variable-rate and bill funding) 		6.86 −0.17 0.07

(a) Average of the major bank's discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending

Sources: ABS;APRA;RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth
June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011		 Year to
September 2011
Total credit 0.1 0.3 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.5 6.4
– Investor housing 0.3 0.4 4.6
– Personal −0.3 −0.3 −0.9
– Business −0.4 0.2 0.2
Broad money 0.3 1.0 8.3
Source: RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly Year-ended
June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011		 June
quarter 2011		 September
quarter 2011
CPI 0.9 0.6   3.6 3.5
Seasonally adjusted CPI(a) 1.0 0.4 3.6 3.5
– Tradables (b) 1.0 0.0   3.6 3.3
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco)(b)		 0.0 −0.1   −1.0 −1.3
– Non-tradables
(excl deposit & loan facilities)(b)		 1.0 0.8   3.5 3.4
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.3   2.6 2.3
Weighted median 0.8 0.3   2.9 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(b) (c) 0.7 0.5   2.5 2.3

(a)Year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(b) Quarterly data are seasonally adjusted by the RBA using ABS seasonal factors for individual components;
year-ended inflation rates are based on non-seasonally adjusted data
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to June 2012 Year to June 2013(a)
May
2011		 August
2011		 November
2011		 August
2011		 November
2011
Market economists 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.8
Union officials 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June
2011		 Dec
2011		 June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013
GDP growth 1.4 2¾ 4 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 3.6 3¼ 2 3¼ 3¼ 2½–3
Underlying inflation 2½ 2½ 2½ 2¾ 2¾ 2½–3
CPI inflation
(excl carbon price)		 3.6 3¼ 2 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Underlying inflation
(excl carbon price)		 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½ 2½–3
Year-average(b)
2010/11 2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013
GDP growth 1.9 1¾ 3¼ 4 3¼ 3¼

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.03, TWI at 76 and Tapis crude oil price at US$116 per barrel
(b) Based on the quarterly national accounts release rather than the recent annual release

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table C1: Consumer Price Index – Base Period Expenditure Weights
Per cent
Expenditure group 15th series (2005) 16th series (2011)
Housing 19.5 22.3
Food & non-alcoholic beverages 15.4 16.8
Recreation & culture 11.6 12.6
Transport 13.1 11.6
Furnishings, household equipment & services 9.6 9.1
Alcohol & tobacco 6.8 7.1
Health 4.7 5.3
Insurance & financial services 9.3 5.1
Clothing & footwear 3.9 4.0
Education 2.7 3.2
Communication 3.3 3.1
Total 100.0 100.0
Source: ABS
Table C2: Selected Underlying Inflation Measures
Year to June 2011
Originally published
(15th series weights,
previous seasonal
adjustment)		 Most recently
published
(15th series weights,
latest seasonal
adjustment)		 Estimates based on
16th series weights
and latest seasonal
adjustment(a)
Trimmed mean 2.7 2.6 2.4
Weighted median 2.7 2.9 2.6
CPI excl. volatile items and
deposit & loan facilities(b)		 2.4 2.4 2.1

(a) RBA estimates
(b) Based on non-seasonally adjusted data

Sources: ABS; RBA