Statement on Monetary Policy – May 2012 List of tables

Chapters

Boxes

Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
SDR, per cent
Change since previous Statement Change over the past year
Bulk commodities    
– Iron ore 1 −18
– Coking coal −1 −31
– Thermal coal −16 −16
Rural −5 −9
– Beef 1 7
– Cotton −5 −41
– Wheat −10 −21
– Wool −8 −13
Base metals −6 −15
– Aluminium −7 −22
– Copper −2 −6
– Lead −1 −11
– Nickel −20 −33
– Zinc −5 −6
Gold −5 12
Oil(b)    
– US$ terms 2 −4
RBA ICP −1 −8

(a) RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP) components except oil and bulk commodities, which are spot prices; latest available
(b) Average of Brent and Tapis crude oil prices

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA

Table 2.1: Policy Rates
Current level Per cent Most recent change Change from
2011 peak Basis points
Euro area 1.00 ↓ Dec 11 −50
Japan 0.05 ↓ Oct 10 –
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 –
Brazil 9.00 ↓ Apr 12 −350
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 –
China 6.56 ↑ Jul 11 –
India 8.00 ↓ Apr 12 −50
Indonesia 5.75 ↓ Feb 12 −100
Israel 2.50 ↓ Jan 12 −75
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 –
Mexico 4.50 ↓ Jul 09 –
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.00 ↓ Dec 11 −25
South Africa 5.50 ↓ Nov 10 –
South Korea 3.25 ↑ Jun 11 –
Sweden 1.50 ↓ Feb 12 −50
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −25
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 –
Thailand 3.00 ↓ Jan 12 −50
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 –
Source: central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2011		 Since end
2011
United States    
– Dow Jones 6 9
– S&P 500 0 12
– NASDAQ −2 17
Euro area    
– STOXX −18 3
United Kingdom
– FTSE −6 3
Japan
– Nikkei −17 11
Canada
– TSE 300 −11 2
Australia
– ASX 200 −15 9
China
– China A −22 11
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −16 12
– Latin America −13 8
– Emerging Europe −19 5
– World −9 9
Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over
the past
year 		Since
previous
Statement
Brazilian real 21 12
Indian rupee 19 8
Australian dollar 6 4
Japanese yen −1 4
Indonesian rupiah 8 4
New Zealand dollar −1 3
South African rand 17 2
Mexican peso 12 2
South Korean won 6 2
Swedish krona 12 2
European euro 13 1
Malaysian ringgit 2 1
Thai baht 3 0
Swiss franc 6 0
Philippine peso −1 0
Chinese renminbi −3 0
Singapore dollar 1 −1
New Taiwan dollar 2 −1
Canadian dollar 4 −1
UK pound sterling 3 −2
Majors TWI 6 1
Broad TWI 5 1
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end March 2012
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)		 Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a) 124 3.9 3,305
Japan −10 −0.8 1,210
Russia 15 3.4 450
Taiwan 8 2.2 394
Brazil 12 3.6 355
South Korea 10 3.3 308
India −3 −1.1 260
Thailand 4 2.2 168
Indonesia 0 −0.1 103
Turkey 2 2.6 79
Chile −2 −6.1 38

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA

Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Per cent
Over
2011		 Since end
2011
Japanese yen −5 5
Indonesian rupiah 0 3
US dollar 0 1
Chinese renminbi −5 1
European euro 3 0
Thai baht 5 −1
Swiss franc 0 −1
South Korean won 3 −2
Canadian dollar 2 −2
UK pound sterling 0 −3
New Zealand dollar 0 −3
Malaysian ringgit 3 −3
Singapore dollar 1 −3
TWI 0 1
Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Annualised, per cent
January–June 2011 July–December 2011
Domestic final demand 4.2 4.7
– Private demand 4.9 7.3
– Public demand 2.0 −3.6
Change in inventories(a) 0.6 −0.2
GNE 5.3 4.2
Net exports(a) −1.9 −0.6
GDP 2.2 2.5
Nominal GDP 7.4 3.8
Real GDI 5.7 2.0

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS

Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
6 months to
September 2011		 6 months to
March 2012		 Year to
March 2012
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) −2.9 −1.7 −4.5
APM(b) −2.4 −0.1 −2.5
RP Data-Rismark −2.6 −1.9 −4.4
Regional areas
APM(b) −0.9 0.9 0.0
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.6 −0.8 −1.4

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarterly measures

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark

Table 4.1: Intermediaries' Variable Lending Rates
Per cent
Level at
30 April 2012 		Change since:
February
Statement		 End
October 2011
Housing loans(a) 6.72 0.14 −0.30
Personal loans 13.17 0.07 −0.04
Small business      
Residentially secured      
– Term loans 8.62 0.10 −0.37
– Overdraft 9.48 0.10 −0.37
Average rate(b) 8.43 0.10 −0.30
Large business      
Average rate(b)
(variable-rate and bill funding)		 6.41 −0.15 −0.50

(a) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on $250,000 full-doc loans
(b) Rates on outstanding, as opposed to new, business lending

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA

Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change
Average monthly growth Year to
March 2012
December
quarter 2011		 March
quarter 2012
Total credit 0.3 0.4 3.4
– Owner-occupier housing 0.5 0.4 5.5
– Investor housing 0.3 0.5 4.8
– Personal −0.1 0.1 −1.5
– Business 0.1 0.3 1.3
Broad money 0.5 0.5 7.1
Source: RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
December
quarter 2011		 March
quarter 2012 		December
quarter 2011		 March
quarter 2012
CPI 0.0 0.1 3.1 1.6
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.2 −0.2 3.1 1.6
– Tradables −1.0 −1.6 1.8 −1.5
– Tradables
(excl food, fuel and tobacco) 		−0.6 −0.9 −1.1 −1.7
– Non-tradables(c) 1.0 0.7 3.6 3.5
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.7 0.3 2.6 2.2
Weighted median 0.6 0.4 2.5 2.1
CPI excl volatile items(c),(d) 0.5 0.2 2.3 2.0

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Excludes deposit and loan facilities to June 2011
(d) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations(a)
Per cent
Year to December 2012 Year to December 2013
November
2011		 February
2012		 May
2012		 February
2012		 May
2012
Market economists 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.7 2.6
Union officials 3.4 3.0 2.3 3.0 2.5

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre

Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
Dec
2011 		June
2012		 Dec
2012		 June
2013		 Dec
2013		 June
2014
GDP growth 2.3 2¾ 3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4
Non-farm GDP growth 2.5 2¾ 3 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 3–4
CPI inflation 3.1 1¼ 2½ 2½–3½ 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation 2½ 2 2¼ 2–3 2–3 2–3
CPI inflation
(excl carbon price)		 3.1 1¼ 1¾ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Underlying inflation
(excl carbon price)		 2½ 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2011 2011/12 2012 2012/13 2013 2013/14
GDP growth 2.0 2¾ 3 3–3½ 3–3½ 3–4

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$1.03, TWI at 76, Tapis crude oil price at US$125 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table B1: Greek Government Debt Holdings
As at end 2011
€ billion Share of total
Per cent
Total 356 –
of which:
PSI eligible 206 58
– Greek law bonds 177 50
– Foreign-law bonds and government-
guaranteed securities		 29 8
Other 150 42
– ECB bond holdings 57 16
– EU loans 53 16
– IMF loans 21 6
– Bills and other 19 5
Sources: European Commission; RBA
Table C1: Resource Exports
Per cent
Share of
total export
values in
2011		 Volumes
growth
over
2011
Metal ores and minerals 28 7.9
– Iron ore 20 10.6
Coal 15 −2.3
‘Other’ mineral fuels 8 −11.2
Gold(a) 5 −3.3
Other metals 4 3.6
Total 60 1.1

(a) Imported gold represented 37 per cent of gold exports

Sources: ABS; RBA

Table E1: 10-year Government Bond Yields
2 May 2012
Credit rating(a) Yield Spreads to swap
Per cent Basis points
Australia AAA 3.64 −83
Canada AAA 2.02 −43
Germany AAA 1.61 −52
United Kingdom AAA 2.05 −32
France AA+ 2.96 82
New Zealand AA+ 3.71 −25
United States AA+ 1.93 −13
Japan AA− 0.89 −2
Italy BBB+ 5.53 324

(a) Minimum long-term local currency issuer rating from Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch

Source: Bloomberg