Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2013 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Long-term Debt Issuance by State Borrowing Authorities(a)
  • Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Variable and Fixed Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)

Boxes

Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −14 −15
– Iron ore −14 −6
– Coking coal −14 −34
– Thermal coal −9 −9
Rural −5 −2
– Beef −8 −4
– Cotton 0 11
– Wheat 0 3
– Wool −12 −11
Base metals −6 −4
– Aluminium −6 −5
– Copper −6 −6
– Lead −3 10
– Nickel −13 −13
– Zinc −5 −1
Gold −14 −16
Brent oil(b) −3 2
RBA ICP −6 −10
– using spot prices for bulk commodities −10 −11

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities prices are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; Energy Publishing; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy Rate Per cent Most recent change Cumulative change in current cycle(a) Basis points
Euro area 0.5 ↓ May 13 −100
Japan(b) na   na  
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 ↓ Aug 13 −225
Brazil 8.50 ↑ Jul 13 125
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
China 6.00 ↓ Jul 12 −56
India(c) 7.25 ↓ May 13 −125
Indonesia 6.50 ↑ Jul 13 75
Israel 1.25 ↓ May 13 −200
Malaysia 3.00 ↑ May 11 100
Mexico 4.00 ↓ Mar 13 −425
New Zealand 2.50 ↓ Mar 11 −50
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.25 ↑ Sep 12 25
South Africa 5.00 ↓ Jul 12 −700
South Korea 2.50 ↓ May 13 −75
Sweden 1.00 ↓ Dec 12 −100
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.50 ↓ May 13 −100
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525
Current monthly asset purchases Most recent change Assets on balance sheet
Per cent of GDP
United States $85 billion   Sep 12 21.5
Japan ¥6 trillion   Apr 13 41.4
United Kingdom 0   Jul 12 25.4

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base
(c) The Reserve Bank of India cut its main policy rate in May, but raised the rate on its marginal lending facility in July

Sources: RBA; Thomson Reuters; central banks
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Since end
2012		 Since last
Statement
United States
– S&P 500 19 4
Euro area
– STOXX 8 1
United Kingdom
– FTSE 10 −1
Japan
– Nikkei 33 −3
Canada
– TSE 300 0 −1
Australia
– ASX 200 8 −4
China
– China A −10 −9
MSCI indices
– Emerging Asia −3 −5
– Latin America −11 −8
– Emerging Europe −6 −7
– World 13 0

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over the past year Since end April
Brazilian real 14 16
Australian dollar 17 15
Indian rupee 11 14
South African rand 22 11
New Zealand dollar 2 7
Thai baht 0 7
Malaysian ringgit 5 7
Philippine peso 5 6
Indonesian rupiah 9 6
Mexican peso −4 5
Canadian dollar 5 3
Singapore dollar 2 3
New Taiwan dollar 0 2
South Korean won −1 2
Swedish krona −3 0
UK pound sterling 1 0
Chinese renminbi −4 −1
Swiss franc −5 −1
Japanese yen 23 −1
European euro −7 −1
Majors TWI 2 1
Broad TWI 1 2

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.4: Foreign Currency Reserves
As at end July 2013
Three-month-ended change Level
US$ equivalent
(billions)		 Per cent US$ equivalent
(billions)
China(a),(b) 54 2 3,497
Russia −12 −3 447
Taiwan(a) 4 1 409
Brazil −4 −1 364
South Korea 1 0 320
India(c) −11 −4 252
Thailand(b) −5 −3 162
Malaysia −2 −1 126
Turkey(c) −9 −8 103
Indonesia(b) −6 −6 92
Philippines 0 0 70

(a) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)
(b) End June
(c) Based on data to 26 July

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Over the past year Since April peak in TWI(a)
Indian rupee −5 −4
South African rand 4 −4
Thai baht −15 −8
New Zealand dollar −13 −8
Malaysian ringgit −11 −8
Indonesian rupiah −7 −9
Canadian dollar −11 −12
Singapore dollar −13 −13
US dollar −15 −15
UK pound sterling −14 −15
Swiss franc −19 −16
Chinese renminbi −18 −16
South Korean won −15 −16
European euro −21 −16
Japanese yen 5 −18
TWI −13 −14

(a) 11 April 2013

Sources: Bloomberg; Thomson Reuters; WM/Reuters
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March quarter 2013 Year to March quarter 2013
Domestic final demand −0.3 1.1
– Private demand −0.7 2.1
– Public demand 1.4 −1.9
Change in inventories(a) −0.4 −0.9
Gross national expenditure −0.6 0.3
Exports 1.1 8.1
Imports −3.5 −3.2
GDP 0.6 2.5
Nominal GDP 1.3 3.0
Real gross domestic income 1.1 1.0

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 3.2: National Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to
June 2013		 3 months to
March 2013		 Year to
June 2013
Capital cities
ABS(a),(b) 2.4 0.8 5.1
APM(b) 2.6 0.5 4.9
RP Data-Rismark 1.0 1.1 3.8
Regional areas
APM(b) 0.6 0.2 1.6
RP Data-Rismark(a) −0.7 0.7 0.5

(a) Detached houses only
(b) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate

Sources: ABS; APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 4.1: Long-term Debt Issuance by State Borrowing Authorities(a)
2013/14 2012/13
Outstanding
as at end May 2013
$ billion		 Budget
position
$ billion		 Gross
issuance
$ billion		 Gross
issuance
$ billion
New South Wales 62 −1.9 5.3 6.9
Queensland 84 −7.7 7.1 13.7
South Australia 15 −0.9 3.0 4.4
Tasmania 4 −0.4 0.4 1.0
Victoria 33 0.2 6.7 7.2
Western Australia(b) 26 na na 8.6

(a) Securities with an original term to maturity of greater than one year
(b) The Western Australian 2013/14 budget was not available at the time of writing

Sources: RBA; state treasury corporations
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three-month-ended Year-ended
March 2013 June 2013 June 2013
Total credit 0.6 1.0 3.1
– Owner-occupier housing 1.1 1.0 4.1
– Investor housing 1.4 1.6 5.7
– Personal 0.2 −0.1 0.2
– Business −0.2 0.9 0.9
Broad money 1.2 1.8 5.4

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Variable and Fixed Lending Rates
Prior to the August cash rate reduction
Level at 30 July 2013 Per cent Change since 30 April 2013 Basis points Change since end October 2011 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 6.18 −25 −161
– Package variable rate(b) 5.35 −26 −168
– Fixed rate(c) 5.17 −27 −134
Personal loans
– Variable rate 11.75 −6 −81
Small business (variable rates)
Residentially secured, advertised
– Term loans 7.35 −25 −165
– Overdraft 8.22 −25 −163
Average rate(d) 6.95 −25 −168
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)		 4.92 −24 −211

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package variable rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' three-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discount)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
March
quarter 2013		 June
quarter 2013		 March
quarter 2013		 June
quarter 2013
Consumer Price Index 0.4 0.4 2.5 2.4
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.2 0.5 – –
– Tradables −1.1 0.1 −0.2 −0.7
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 −1.1 0.1 −1.4 −1.3
– Non-tradables 0.9 0.8 4.2 4.3
Selected underlying measures
Trimmed mean 0.4 0.5 2.3 2.2
Weighted median 0.5 0.6 2.6 2.6
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.3 0.6 2.4 2.6

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2013 Year to December 2014
February 2013 May 2013 August 2013 May 2013 August 2013
Market economists 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.7 2.6
Union officials(a) 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6

(a) Excluding carbon price

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June 2013 Dec 2013 June 2014 Dec 2014 Jun 2015 Dec 2015
GDP growth 2½ 2¼ 2½ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 2½ 2¼ 2½ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
CPI inflation 2.4 2 2½ 2–3 2–3 1¾–2¾
Underlying inflation 2½ 2¼ 2¼ 2–3 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2012/13 2013 2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015
GDP growth 2¾ 2¼ 2½ 2¼–3¼ 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.90, TWI at 69 and Brent crude oil price at US$104 per barrel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table A1: Investment by Industry
2011/12, per cent
Industry Share of total 3-year-ended growth
Mining 41.6 87.7
Non-mining 58.4 −4.1
– Included in Capex 48.4 −8.0
Manufacturing and construction 10.7 −14.4
Electricity, gas, water & waste services 4.1 −8.3
Wholesale and retail trade 5.3 −2.7
Transport, postal & warehousing 6.6 −6.0
Information, media & telecommunications 4.0 −23.9
Business services (finance and rental)(a) 11.0 −1.5
Other services 6.9 −1.2
– Not included in Capex 10.0 21.1
Agriculture, forestry & fishing 6.6 29.2
Education, training and safety 1.8 72.1
Health care & social assistance 1.6 −24.4

(a) The Capex survey excludes the superannuation funds sub-component of this series which is included here

Source: ABS