Statement on Monetary Policy – August 2014 List of tables

Chapters

  • Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth
  • Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
  • Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
  • Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves
  • Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
  • Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
  • Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
  • Table 4.1: Long-term Bond Issuance by State Treasury Corporations
  • Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
  • Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
  • Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
  • Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
  • Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts
Table 1.1: Commodity Prices Growth(a)
SDR, 3-month-average prices, per cent
Since previous Statement Over the past year
Bulk commodities −12 −23
– Iron ore −17 −25
– Coking coal −3 −21
– Thermal coal −4 −15
Rural 0 −1
Base metals 6 3
Gold −1 −5
Brent oil(b) 1 4
RBA ICP −5 −12
– Using spot prices for bulk commodities −6 −13

(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodities are spot prices
(b) In US dollars

Sources: Bloomberg; IHS Energy Publishing; RBA
Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
Policy rate Per cent Most recent change Cumulative change in current phase(a) Basis points
Euro area 0.15 ↓ Jun 14 −135
Japan(b) na   na  
United States 0.125 ↓ Dec 08 −512.5
Australia 2.50 ↓ Aug 13 −225
Brazil 11.00 ↑ Apr 14 375
Canada 1.00 ↑ Sep 10 75
Chile 3.75 ↓ Jul 14 −150
China(b) na   na  
India 8.00 ↑ Jan 14 75
Indonesia 7.50 ↑ Nov 13 175
Israel 0.50 ↓ Jul 14 −275
Malaysia 3.25 ↑ Jul 14 125
Mexico 3.00 ↓ Jun 14 −525
New Zealand 3.50 ↑ Jul 14 100
Norway 1.50 ↓ Mar 12 −75
Russia 8.00 ↑ Jul 14 250
South Africa 5.75 ↑ Jul 14 75
South Korea 2.50 ↓ May 13 −75
Sweden 0.25 ↓ Jul 14 −175
Switzerland 0.00 ↓ Aug 11 −275
Taiwan 1.875 ↑ Jun 11 62.5
Thailand 2.00 ↓ Mar 14 −150
Turkey 8.25 ↓ Jul 14 −175
United Kingdom 0.50 ↓ Mar 09 −525
Current monthly asset purchases Most recent change Assets on
balance sheet
Per cent of GDP
United States $25 billion Jul 14 25.5
Japan ¥6 trillion Apr 13 55.2

(a) Current rate relative to most recent trough or peak
(b) Since April 2013, the Bank of Japan's main operating target has been the money base; China does not have an official policy rate

Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters
Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
Per cent
Over
2013		 Year to
date
United States – S&P 500 30 4
Euro area – STOXX 20 −2
United Kingdom – FTSE 14 −2
Japan – Nikkei 57 −7
Canada – TSE 300 10 12
Australia – ASX 200 15 3
China – A shares −7 5
MSCI indices    
– Emerging Asia 3 7
– Latin America −7 6
– Emerging Europe −2 −6
– World 23 2

Source: Bloomberg
Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since end
April 2013		 Since end
January
2014
Swedish krona 6 5
Chinese renminbi 0 2
European euro −2 1
Swiss franc −2 0
Japanese yen 5 0
New Taiwan dollar 2 −1
Canadian dollar 8 −2
Singapore dollar 1 −2
Mexican peso 9 −2
Thai baht 10 −2
UK pound sterling −8 −2
Indian rupee 14 −3
Philippine peso 6 −4
Indonesian rupiah 21 −4
Malaysian ringgit 5 −4
New Zealand dollar 1 −5
South Korean won −6 −5
South African rand 19 −5
Brazilian real 14 −6
Australian dollar 11 −6
TWI 4 0

Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
Percentage change since: Level
End
April 2013		 End
December 2013		 End
March 2014		 US$ equivalent
(billions)
China 13 4 1 3,993
Taiwan(b) 5 2 1 424
Russia −9 −8 −3 416
Brazil 0 5 4 367
South Korea 12 7 4 358
Hong Kong 4 2 1 308
India 12 10 6 294
Thailand −6 0 0 159
Malaysia −6 −2 2 120
Turkey −2 1 6 110
Indonesia 1 9 5 101
South Africa −3 −3 −2 41

(a) Data to end June for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Africa and Thailand; to 14 July for Malaysia; to 25 July for India, Russia and Turkey; to end July for Brazil, South Korea and Taiwan
(b) Foreign exchange reserves (includes foreign currency and other reserve assets)

Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; Central Banks; IMF; RBA
Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
Per cent
Since April 2013 peak in TWI(a) Since January 2014 trough in TWI(b)
European euro −13 10
Chinese renminbi −12 10
Swiss franc −14 9
US dollar −11 8
Japanese yen −9 7
Canadian dollar −5 6
Thai baht −2 6
UK pound sterling −19 5
Singapore dollar −11 5
Indian rupee 0 5
New Zealand dollar −10 4
South African rand 7 4
Indonesian rupiah 8 4
South Korean won −19 3
Malaysian ringgit −6 3
TWI −11 7

(a) 11 April 2013
(b) 25 January 2014

Sources: Bloomberg; RBA
Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
Per cent
March
quarter 2014		 December
quarter 2013		 Year to March
quarter 2014
GDP 1.1 0.8 3.5
Domestic final demand 0.3 0.2 1.6
– Private demand 0.5 0.0 1.8
– Public demand −0.3 0.9 0.8
Change in inventories(a) −0.6 0.3 −0.7
Gross national expenditure −0.3 0.5 0.9
Exports 4.8 1.1 10.4
Imports −1.4 −0.6 −2.2
Nominal GDP 1.1 1.6 4.9
Real gross domestic income 0.8 1.0 2.5

(a) Contribution to GDP growth

Source: ABS
Table 3.2: Housing Price Growth
Per cent
3 months to June 2014 3 months to March 2014 Year to June 2014
Capital cities
APM(a) 2.1 1.9 10.1
RP Data-Rismark 1.4 2.3 10.3
Regional areas
APM(a) 0.6 1.2 4.6
RP Data-Rismark(b) 0.0 0.3 3.3

(a) Quarter-on-quarter growth rate
(b) Detached houses only

Sources: APM; RBA; RP Data-Rismark
Table 4.1: Long-term Bond Issuance by State Treasury Corporations(a)
Issuer Outstanding as
at June 2014 $ billion		 2013/14
issuance $ billion		 2014/15
indicative target $ billion
New South Wales 64 5 6
Queensland 81 6 8
South Australia 14 3 4
Tasmania 3 0 1
Victoria 36 6 3
Western Australia 30 6 9
Total 230 27 31

(a) Securities with an original term to maturity of greater than one year; figures are rounded to the nearest whole number; projections are based on the latest funding program forecasts for gross term issuance less prior year surplus funding

Sources: State Treasury Corporations; RBA
Table 4.2: Financial Aggregates
Percentage change(a)
Three months ended March 2014 Three months ended June 2014 Year ended June 2014
Total credit 1.2 1.6 5.1
– Owner-occupier housing 1.3 1.4 5.3
– Investor housing 2.1 2.5 8.7
– Personal −0.2 0.4 0.7
– Business 0.8 1.5 3.5
Broad money 1.9 1.9 7.0

(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 4.3: Intermediaries' Fixed and Variable Lending Rates
Level at 6 August 2014 Per cent Change
since end April 2014 Basis points		 Change
since end August 2013 Basis points		 Change
since end October 2011 Basis points
Housing loans
– Standard variable rate(a) 5.93 0 0 −186
– Package variable rate(b) 5.08 0 −2 −195
– Fixed rate(c) 5.12 −8 1 −140
– Average outstanding rate 5.30 −5 −16 −187
Personal loans
– Standard variable rate 11.63 1 −7 −86
Small business (variable rates)
– Term loans 7.10 0 0 −190
– Overdraft 7.97 0 0 −188
Average rate(d) 6.69 −2 −11 −194
Large business
Average rate(d)
(variable rate and bill funding)		 4.50 −7 −29 −253

(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates
(b) Average of the major banks' discounted package rates on new, $250,000 full-doc loans
(c) Average of the major banks' 3-year fixed rates
(d) Rates on outstanding business lending (includes discounts)

Sources: ABS; APRA; RBA
Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
Per cent
Quarterly(a) Year-ended(b)
June
quarter 2014		 March
quarter 2014		 June
quarter 2014		 March
quarter 2014
Consumer Price Index 0.5 0.6 3.0 2.9
Seasonally adjusted CPI 0.6 0.6 – –
– Tradables 0.4 0.7 2.9 2.6
– Tradables
(excl volatile items and tobacco)(c)		 0.5 0.0 1.2 0.8
– Non-tradables 0.7 0.5 3.1 3.1
Selected underlying measures        
Trimmed mean 0.8 0.6 2.9 2.6
Weighted median 0.6 0.6 2.7 2.7
CPI excl volatile items(c) 0.7 0.5 2.8 2.7

(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using seasonal factors published by the ABS
(b) Year-ended changes are based on non-seasonally adjusted data, except for the trimmed mean and weighted median
(c) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and automotive fuel

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 5.2: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2014 Year to December 2015
February
2014		 May
2014		 August
2014		 May
2014		 August
2014
Market economists 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6
Union officials 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0

Sources: RBA; Workplace Research Centre
Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Per cent
Year-ended
June
2014		 Dec
2014		 June
2015		 Dec
2015		 June
2016		 Dec
2016
GDP growth 3 2½ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
Non-farm GDP growth 3¼ 2¾ 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾ 2¾–4¼
CPI inflation(b) 3 2 1¾–2¾ 2½–3½ 2½–3½ 2¼–3¼
Underlying inflation(b) 2¾ 2¼ 1¾–2¾ 2¼–3¼ 2–3 2–3
Year-average
2013/14 2014 2014/15 2015 2015/16 2016
GDP growth 3 3 2–3 2–3 2½–3½ 2¾–3¾

(a) Technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.93, TWI at 72 and Brent crude oil price at US$106 per barrel
(b) Based on current legislation for the price of carbon

Sources: ABS; RBA