Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2016 List of tables
Chapters
- Table 1.1: Commodity Price Growth(a)
- Table 2.1: Monetary Policy
- Table 2.2: Changes in International Share Prices
- Table 2.3: Changes in the US Dollar against Selected Currencies
- Table 2.4: Gross Foreign Currency Reserves(a)
- Table 2.5: Changes in the Australian Dollar against Selected Currencies
- Table 3.1: Demand and Output Growth
- Table 4.1: Financial Aggregates
- Table 4.2: Intermediaries' Lending Rates
- Table 4.3: Business Loan Approvals by Industry(a)
- Table 5.1: Measures of Consumer Price Inflation
- Table 6.1: Output Growth and Inflation Forecasts(a)
Since previous Statement | Over the past year | |
---|---|---|
Bulk commodities | 37 | 42 |
– Iron ore | 7 | 9 |
– Coking coal | 95 | 120 |
– Thermal coal | 40 | 41 |
Rural | −1 | 1 |
Base metals | 5 | 5 |
Gold | 2 | 16 |
Brent crude oil(b) | 2 | 0 |
RBA ICP | 9 | 7 |
– using spot prices for bulk commodities | 20 | 21 |
(a) Prices from the RBA Index of Commodity Prices (ICP); bulk commodity prices
are spot prices Sources: Bloomberg; IHS; RBA |
Policy rate Per cent |
Most recent change | ||
---|---|---|---|
Euro area(a) | −0.40 | ↓ | Mar 16 |
Japan(a) | −0.10 | ↓ | Jan 16 |
United States(b) | 0.375 | ↑ | Dec 15 |
Australia | 1.50 | ↓ | Aug 16 |
Brazil | 14.00 | ↓ | Oct 16 |
Canada | 0.50 | ↓ | Jul 15 |
Chile | 3.50 | ↑ | Dec 15 |
India | 6.25 | ↓ | Oct 16 |
Indonesia | 4.75 | ↓ | Oct 16 |
Israel | 0.10 | ↓ | Feb 15 |
Malaysia | 3.00 | ↓ | Jul 16 |
Mexico | 4.75 | ↑ | Sep 16 |
New Zealand | 2.00 | ↓ | Aug 16 |
Norway | 0.50 | ↓ | Mar 16 |
Russia | 10.00 | ↓ | Sep 16 |
South Africa | 7.00 | ↑ | Mar 16 |
South Korea | 1.25 | ↓ | Jun 16 |
Sweden | −0.50 | ↓ | Feb 16 |
Switzerland(b) | −0.75 | ↓ | Jan 15 |
Thailand | 1.50 | ↓ | Apr 15 |
Turkey | 7.50 | ↓ | Feb 15 |
United Kingdom | 0.25 | ↓ | Aug 16 |
(a) Marginal rate paid on deposits at the central bank Sources: Central Banks; RBA; Thomson Reuters |
2016 to date | |
---|---|
United States – S&P 500 | 3 |
Euro area – STOXX | −7 |
United Kingdom – FTSE | 10 |
Japan – Nikkei | −10 |
Canada – TSE 300 | 12 |
Australia – ASX 200 | −1 |
China – MSCI All China | −7 |
MSCI indices | |
– Emerging Asia | 8 |
– Latin America | 27 |
– Emerging Europe | 7 |
– World | 2 |
Source: Bloomberg |
Over 2015 | 2016 to date | |
---|---|---|
UK pound sterling | 6 | 20 |
Mexican peso | 17 | 13 |
Swedish krona | 8 | 6 |
Chinese renminbi | 5 | 4 |
Philippine peso | 5 | 3 |
Indian rupee | 5 | 1 |
European euro | 11 | −2 |
South Korean won | 8 | −2 |
Singapore dollar | 7 | −2 |
Malaysian ringgit | 22 | −3 |
Swiss franc | 1 | −3 |
Thai baht | 10 | −3 |
Canadian dollar | 19 | −3 |
New Taiwan dollar | 4 | −4 |
Australian dollar | 12 | −5 |
Indonesian rupiah | 11 | −5 |
New Zealand dollar | 14 | −6 |
Russian rouble | 24 | −12 |
Japanese yen | 0 | −14 |
Brazilian real | 50 | −18 |
Trade-weighted index | 10 | 0 |
Sources: Bloomberg; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System |
Percentage change since: | Level | ||
---|---|---|---|
End September 2015 | End June 2016 | US$ equivalent (billions) | |
China | −10 | −1 | 3,166 |
Saudi Arabia | −15 | −3 | 545 |
Taiwan(b) | 2 | 1 | 437 |
South Korea | 2 | 2 | 368 |
Brazil | 1 | 1 | 354 |
Hong Kong | 7 | 1 | 354 |
India | 5 | 1 | 342 |
Russia | 2 | 0 | 316 |
Singapore | 1 | 2 | 251 |
Thailand | 16 | 1 | 171 |
Mexico | −1 | 1 | 171 |
Indonesia | 14 | 6 | 109 |
Turkey | 0 | 0 | 100 |
Malaysia | 5 | 1 | 90 |
(a) Data to end August for Mexico and Saudi Arabia; to end September for China,
Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand; to 14 October
for India, Malaysia, Russia and Turkey; and to 21 October for Brazil Sources: Bloomberg; CEIC Data; Central Banks; IMF; RBA |
Over 2015 | 2016 to date | |
---|---|---|
UK pound sterling | −6 | 26 |
Chinese renminbi | −7 | 9 |
Indian rupee | −7 | 6 |
US dollar | −11 | 5 |
European euro | −1 | 3 |
South Korean won | −4 | 3 |
Singapore dollar | −5 | 3 |
Malaysian ringgit | 9 | 2 |
Swiss franc | −10 | 2 |
Thai baht | −2 | 2 |
Canadian dollar | 6 | 2 |
Indonesian rupiah | −1 | −1 |
New Zealand dollar | 2 | −1 |
South African rand | 19 | −9 |
Japanese yen | −11 | −9 |
Trade-weighted index | −6 | 4 |
Sources: Bloomberg; RBA |
2015/16 | 2014/15 | |
---|---|---|
GDP | 2.8 | 2.4 |
Domestic final demand | 1.2 | 1.1 |
– Private demand(a) | 0.6 | 1.2 |
– Consumption | 2.9 | 2.6 |
– Dwelling investment | 9.8 | 7.8 |
– Mining investment | −27.5 | −20.1 |
– Non-mining investment(a) | 1.0 | 6.9 |
– Public demand(a) | 3.5 | 0.6 |
Change in inventories(b) | −0.1 | 0.3 |
Exports | 6.7 | 6.7 |
Imports | −0.3 | 1.2 |
Mining activity | −2.0 | −3.4 |
Non-mining activity | 3.5 | 3.4 |
Nominal GDP | 2.3 | 1.7 |
Real gross domestic income | 0.6 | 0.1 |
(a) RBA estimates Sources: ABS; RBA |
Three-month ended | Year-ended | ||
---|---|---|---|
June 2016 | Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | |
Total credit | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5.4 |
– Housing | 1.5 | 1.6 | 6.4 |
– Owner-occupier | 1.6 | 1.6 | 7.3 |
– Investor | 1.1 | 1.6 | 4.8 |
– Personal | −0.3 | −0.5 | −1.3 |
– Business | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.7 |
Broad money | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5.8 |
(a) Growth rates are break adjusted and seasonally adjusted Sources: APRA; RBA |
Interest rate | Change since July 2016 | Change since December 2015 | |
---|---|---|---|
Per cent | Basis points | Basis points | |
Housing loans | |||
– Standard variable rate(a)(d) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 5.26 | −13 | −36 |
– Investor | 5.50 | −13 | −39 |
– Package variable rate(b)(d) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 4.51 | −8 | −31 |
– Investor | 4.75 | −8 | −36 |
– Fixed rate(c)(d) | |||
– Owner-occupier | 4.02 | −26 | −41 |
– Investor | 4.13 | −35 | −57 |
– Average outstanding rate(d) | 4.53 | −12 | −33 |
Personal loans | |||
– Variable rate(e) | 11.27 | −10 | 1 |
Small business | |||
– Term loans variable rate(f) | 6.39 | −11 | −21 |
– Overdraft variable rate(f) | 7.27 | −11 | −21 |
– Fixed rate(c)(f) | 5.22 | −4 | −21 |
– Average outstanding rate(d) | 5.34 | −15 | −29 |
Large business | |||
Average outstanding rate(d) | 3.51 | −20 | −40 |
(a) Average of the major banks' standard variable rates Sources: ABS; APRA; Canstar Cannex; RBA |
Year-ended | Industry share of credit | |
---|---|---|
September quarter 2016 | June 2016 | |
Property, business and other services | −10 | 48 |
Finance and Insurance | −6 | 19 |
Wholesale and retail trade and transport | 8 | 13 |
Agriculture, forestry and fishing | 1 | 7 |
Manufacturing | −27 | 5 |
Mining | −60 | 4 |
Construction | 10 | 4 |
Total | −8 | 100 |
(a) Loan approvals by industry are gross of refinancing and reductions Sources: APRA; RBA |
Quarterly(a) | Year-ended(b) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
September quarter 2016 | June quarter 2016 | September quarter 2016 | June quarter 2016 | |
Consumer Price Index | 0.7 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Seasonally adjusted CPI | 0.4 | 0.6 | – | – |
– Tradables | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
– Tradables (excl. volatile items and tobacco)(c) | −0.2 | −0.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
– Non-tradables | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
Selected underlying measures | ||||
Trimmed mean | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
Weighted median | 0.3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
CPI excl. volatile items(c) | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
(a) Except for the headline CPI, quarterly changes are based on seasonally
adjusted data; those not published by the ABS are calculated by the RBA using
seasonal factors published by the ABS Sources: ABS; RBA |
Year-ended | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jun 2016 | Dec 2016 | Jun 2017 | Dec 2017 | Jun 2018 | Dec 2018 | |
GDP growth | 3.3 | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 3–4 |
CPI inflation | 1.0 | 1½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ |
Underlying inflation | 1½ | 1½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ | 1½–2½ |
Year-average | ||||||
2015/16 | 2016 | 2016/17 | 2017 | 2017/18 | 2018 | |
GDP growth | 2.8 | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ | 2½–3½ |
(a) Technical assumptions include A$=US$0.77, TWI at 65 and Brent crude oil price at US$50 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data Sources: ABS; RBA |