Forecast Table – August 2020 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario

This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the August 2020 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Forecast Table – August 2020 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Jun 2020 Dec 2020 Jun 2021 Dec 2021 Jun 2022 Dec 2022
Gross domestic product −6 −6 4 5 4 4
Household consumption −11 −7 8 6 5 4
Dwelling investment −14 −14 2 8 2 5
Business investment −12 −17 −5 6 7 9
Public demand 5 3 1 2 3 3
Gross national expenditure −7 −6 5 5 4 4
Imports −18 −12 11 9 9 7
Exports −11 −9 5 8 8 5
Real household disposable income 2 −5 −6 3 6 5
Terms of trade −1 −1 −6 −2 −2 −2
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP −5 0 9 5 4 4
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 7.0 10 9 8½ 7½ 7
Employment −4.4 −6 0 3 4 3
Wage price index 1¾ 1¼ 1¼ 1¼ 1½ 1¾
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 5 1½ −3 ¼ 2½ 2½
Trimmed mean inflation 1.2 1 1¼ 1 1¼ 1½
Consumer price index −0.3 1¼ 3 1 1¼ 1½

(a) Forecast assumptions: TWI at 61, A$ at US$0.72, Brent crude oil price at US$46/bbl; the cash rate remains at its current level and other elements of the Bank's monetary stimulus package, including the 0.25 per cent target for the 3-year Australian Government bond yield, are assumed to remain unchanged. Shaded regions are historical data.
(b) Rounding varies: economic activity variables and employment rounded to the nearest whole number; unemployment rate to the nearest half point; wages and prices variables to the nearest quarter point

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA