Forecast Table – May 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario

This table provides additional detail on key macroeconomic variables presented in the ‘baseline’ scenario in the May 2021 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Forecast Table – May 2021 – ‘Baseline’ Scenario(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown(b)
  Dec 2020 Jun 2021 Dec 2021 Jun 2022 Dec 2022 Jun 2023
Gross domestic product −1.1 9¼ 4¾ 4 3½ 3
Household consumption −2.7 15½ 5½ 5¼ 4 3
Dwelling investment 0.6 10¾ 4½ −½ ½ 3¼
Business investment −5.1 1¾ 6 9 9 6
Public demand 6.3 5¼ 4½ 3¼ 2 1¾
Gross national expenditure −0.3 12 5¼ 4¾ 3¾ 3
Imports −9.6 16½ 8¾ 10½ 10 6
Exports −11.7 3¼ 6 6¾ 7½ 5¼
Real household disposable income 4.4 −¾ 1 2¾ 1¾ 1¼
Terms of trade 7.3 19¾ 9 −7¾ −8 −5¼
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 1.9 11 4¼ 4¾ 4 3¾
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 6.8 5¼ 5 4¾ 4½ 4½
Employment −0.9 6¾ 3 1¼ 1¼ 1¼
Wage price index 1.4 1½ 1¾ 2 2¼ 2¼
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 5.8 −4½ −¼ 1¾ 2¼ 2¼
Trimmed mean inflation 1.2 1½ 1½ 1½ 1¾ 2
Consumer price index 0.9 3¼ 1¾ 1¼ 1½ 2


(a) Forecasts finalised on 5 May. Forecast assumptions: TWI at 64, A$ at US$0.77, Brent crude oil price at US$68bbl, population growth of 0.2 per cent over 2021 and 0.4 per cent over 2022; cash rate in line with market pricing out to 2022 (and held constant thereafter); and other elements of the Bank's monetary stimulus are in line with the announcement made following the February 2021 Board meeting.
(b) Forecasts are rounded to the nearest quarter point. Shaded regions are historical data and are shown to one decimal place.

Sources: ABS; CEIC Data; Consensus Economics; Refinitiv; RBA