RDP 9310: Explaining the Recent Performance of Australia's Manufactured Exports Appendix D: Data Sources and Definitions

Manufactured Exports

In this paper Australian manufactured exports are defined to be the categories ‘Machinery’, ‘Transport equipment’ and ‘Other manufactures’ as used in the ABS Catalogue No. 5302.0. This definition coincides with Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) sections 5–8, less divisions 67 and 68, and so excludes some Simply Transformed Manufactures (STMs) such as iron and steel.

Current price seasonally adjusted estimates of these series were available from the ABS from September quarter 1969. Constant price estimates, however, were only available from the same source from the September quarter of 1974. This series was extended back to September quarter 1969 by splicing the percentage changes of the implicit price deflator for the category ‘Metals, metal manufactures, machinery and transport equipment’ as used in the ABS Catalogue no. 5421.0.

The Real Exchange Rate

The measure of the real exchange rate used in this paper was first calculated by Jones and Wilkinson (1990). It is the geometric weighted average of the bilateral real exchange rates for 22 of Australia's major trading partners. The bilateral real exchange rates are estimated using each country's consumer price index as the price deflator. The weights are based on annual shares of merchandise trade, interpolated on a quarterly basis.

Overseas Demand

The series for overseas demand is a geometric weighted average of changes in industrial production of 19 of Australia's major trading partners. The weights are based on three-year moving averages of merchandise export shares for those countries.

Domestic Demand

The measure of domestic demand used in this paper is Gross National Expenditure in constant price terms, seasonally adjusted, as published by the ABS Catalogue No. 5206.0.

Effective Rate of Assistance

The Industry Commission has published estimates the average effective rate of assistance for manufacturing on an annual basis since 1968–69 (Plunkett et al. 1992). The effective rate of assistance is a broader concept than the effective rate of protection. It includes non-border interventions that differentially influence the returns to value-adding factors in an industry. The estimates comprise four overlapping series compiled on different base years. Ideally, the series should be calculated with moving weights to reflect the changing patterns of manufacturing production. Therefore, ‘ …the estimates for all years other than the base year in each series should be regarded as only general indicators of the assistance levels received by the manufacturing sector.’ (Plunkett et al. 1992 p.49). These four overlapping series were spliced together and then converted to a quarterly series by assuming that changes in assistance only occurred at the start of the September quarter of each year, that is, the effective rate of assistance remained constant within each financial year.