Statement on Monetary Policy – February 2007 List of tables

Table 1: Commodity Prices
Percentage change; SDR
Three months to
January 2007		 Year to
January 2007
RBA index 0.3 9.9
Rural 3.3 9.6
– Wheat −4.0 16.3
– Beef & veal −1.2 4.1
– Wool 26.6 41.5
– Sugar −2.8 −33.3
Base metals −2.2 46.0
– Aluminium 3.9 13.8
– Copper −24.9 16.7
– Nickel 11.1 143.0
– Zinc −2.0 76.7
Other resources 0.4 −1.1
– Coking coal(a) −0.9 −18.6
– Steaming coal(a) −2.1 −10.6
– Iron ore(a) −1.0 13.0
– Gold 6.0 11.0
Memo item    
Oil in US$(b) −6.9 −16.0

(a) Latest available data are for December.
(b) Oil prices are not included in the RBA index.

Sources: ABS; AWB; AWEX; Bloomberg; Meat and Livestock Australia; RBA
Table 2: Changes in Monetary Policy
Current level
Per cent		 Most recent
change		 Change since
end 2005		 Expectations for
next 6 months
United States 5.25 ↑ Jun 06 ↑ 100 bps No change
Euro area 3.50 ↑ Dec 06 ↑ 125 bps ↑ 50 bps
Japan 0.25 ↑ Jul 06 ↑ 25 bps ↑ 25 bps
United Kingdom 5.25 ↑ Jan 07 ↑ 75 bps ↑ 50 bps
Canada 4.25 ↑ May 06 ↑ 100 bps No change
New Zealand 7.25 ↑ Dec 05   No change ↑ 50 bps

Sources: central banks; Bloomberg; Reuters
Table 3: Equity Markets
Percentage change
Since 2000
peak
 Since 2003
trough		 2006 Since previous
Statement
United States
– Dow Jones 8 68 16 5
– S&P 500 −5 81 14 5
– NASDAQ −51 96 10 5
Euro area
– STOXX −12 149 20 7
United Kingdom
– FTSE −8 94 11 2
Japan
– TOPIX −2 124 2 9
Canada
– TSE 300 15 111 15 6
Australia
– ASX 200 75 118 19 9
MSCI Emerging Asia 28 162 24 9
MSCI Latin America 191 282 34 13
MSCI World 1 106 14 6

Source: Bloomberg
Table 4: Change in US Dollar against Other Currencies
Per cent
2006 Since previous
Statement
Sweden −14 −1
Thailand −14 −6
United Kingdom −12 −3
Euro area −10 −1
Brazil −9 −2
Indonesia −9 −1
South Korea −8 0
Philippines −8 −3
Singapore −8 −2
Australia −7 −1
Switzerland −7 0
Malaysia −7 −4
China −3 −2
New Zealand −3 −3
India −2 −1
Taiwan −1 0
Canada 0 5
Japan 1 2
Mexico 2 0
South Africa 11 −1
Majors TWI −5 1
Broad TWI −4 0

Source: RBA
Table 5: Australian Dollar against Selected TWI Currencies
Percentage change
2006 Since previous
Statement
South Africa 19 −1
Japan 9 4
US 8 2
Canada 8 6
Taiwan 7 2
PNG 6 2
New Zealand 5 −2
China 4 0
Switzerland 1 1
Philippines 0 −2
South Korea 0 1
Singapore −1 0
Indonesia −1 1
Euro area −3 0
UK −5 −2
Sweden −7 −1
TWI 4 1

Source: RBA
Table 6: Demand and Output
Percentage change
June
qtr 2006		 September
qtr 2006		 Year to September
qtr 2006
Domestic final demand 1.2 0.1 3.4
Change in inventories(a) −0.7 −0.1 −0.8
GNE(b) 0.7 −0.1 2.5
Net exports(a) −0.2 0.4 −0.5
GDP 0.5 0.3 2.2
Non-farm GDP 0.7 0.6 2.6
Farm GDP −5.1 −10.0 −11.4
Memo item:
Real GDP adjusted for
changes in the terms of trade		 0.9 0.7 3.6

(a) Contributions to GDP growth
(b) Includes the statistical discrepancy

Source: ABS
Table 7: House Prices
Percentage change
APM REIA Residex
Dec qtr
2006		 Year to
Dec qtr		 Dec qtr
2006(a)		 Year to
Dec qtr		 Dec qtr
2006		 Year to
Dec qtr
Sydney 1 1 .. .. 1 1
Melbourne 1 3 1 5 1 4
Brisbane 1 5 .. .. 2 7
Adelaide 3 8 −1 4 2 7
Perth 1 31 3 37 2 27
Canberra 3 5 3 8 −2 3
Hobart −1 7 −3 5 4 8
Darwin 5 17 −4 13 0 21
Australia 1 6 .. .. 1 8

(a) Seasonally adjusted by the RBA

Sources: APM; REIA; state REIs; RBA; Residex
Table 8: Rental Vacancy Rates
Per cent, seasonally adjusted
1979–2005
Average
 2006(a)
Sydney 2.4 1.9
Melbourne 2.8 1.7
Brisbane 3.6 1.9
Adelaide 2.9 1.6
Perth 3.7 1.8
Canberra 2.9 1.8
Australia 2.9 1.8

(a) Estimate based on data for the first three quarters

Sources: RBA; state REIs
Table 9: Labour Market by State
Three-month-ended basis, per cent
Employment growth
 Unemployment rate
Three years to
January 2007,
annualised		 Year to
January 2007		 January
2004		 January
2007
NSW 1.6 2.1 5.5 5.0
Victoria 2.4 2.4 5.5 4.9
Queensland 4.4 5.4 6.2 4.1
WA 3.6 2.2 5.9 3.1
SA 1.9 2.0 6.7 5.5
Tasmania 2.2 −0.8 7.0 5.9
Australia 2.6 2.8 5.8 4.6

Source: ABS
Table 10: Interest Rates
Per cent, February 2007
Cash rate Actual rate on new
housing loans(a)		 Actual
business rate(a)
Level 6.25 7.45 7.80
Deviation from decade average 1.05 0.80 0.00

(a) RBA estimates

Sources: APRA; RBA
Table 11: Interest Margins and Losses on Housing Loans
Basis points
2000 2002 2004 2006
Prime, full-documentation loans
Interest margin(a) 155 145 135 125
Losses(b) 3 2 1 1
Sub-prime loans
Interest margin(a) na 425 390 290
Losses na na 5 19

(a) Spread between the interest rate on new variable-rate housing loans and the cash rate
(b) For loans held on the balance sheets of the four major banks

Sources: banks' annual reports; ABS; RBA; Standard and Poor's

Table 12: Financial Aggregates
Average monthly growth, percentage change
March
quarter
2006		 June
quarter
2006		 September
quarter
2006		 December
quarter
2006
Total credit 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1
Household 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.0
– Owner-occupier housing 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1
– Investor housing 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7
– Personal 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9
Business 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2
Broad money 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8

Source: RBA
Table 13: Non-government Net Bond Issuance by Sector
$ billion
Sector 2003 2004 2005 2006
of which
December
quarter
Bond issues by Australian entities
Onshore
Financial institutions 3.8 8.8 16.6 15.7 2.7
Non-financial corporates 2.8 4.4 3.9 7.2 2.5
Asset-backed 10.7 6.7 15.5 23.4 2.9
Total 17.3 19.8 36.0 46.3 8.1
Offshore
Financial institutions 26.2 36.5 26.1 33.2 6.1
Non-financial corporates 9.7 11.6 9.4 5.6 1.2
Asset-backed 8.8 14.6 6.4 6.4 1.4
Total 44.6 62.7 41.9 45.2 8.7
Total 61.9 82.5 78.0 91.5 16.9
A$ bond issues by non-resident entities
Onshore 2.6 18.0 22.9 27.2 3.4
Offshore 23.1 18.1 5.4 −2.7 −2.7
Total 25.7 36.1 28.2 24.5 0.7

Source: RBA
Table 14: Measures of Consumer Prices
Percentage change
Quarterly Year-ended
September
quarter
2006		 December
quarter
2006		 September
quarter
2006		 December
quarter
2006
CPI 0.9 −0.1 3.9 3.3
– Tradables 0.8 −1.4 4.4 2.9
– Tradables (ex food and petrol) 0.4 −0.1 0.4 0.8
Non-tradables 1.0 0.8 3.6 3.5
Underlying measures        
Weighted median 0.8 0.5 3.2 3.0
Trimmed mean 0.7 0.5 2.9 2.9
CPI ex volatile items(a) 0.8 0.5 2.6 2.7

(a) Volatile items are fruit, vegetables and petrol

Sources: ABS; RBA
Table 15: Median Inflation Expectations
Per cent
Year to December 2007 Year to December 2008
August
2006		 November
2006		 February
2007		 February
2007
Market economists(a) 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5
Union officials(b) 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.5
(a) RBA survey
(b) Workplace Research Centre
Table 16: RBA Inflation Forecasts(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
Dec
2005		 June
2006		 Dec
2006		 June
2007		 Dec
2007		 June
2008		 Dec
2008
Consumer price index 2.8 4.0 3.3 1¾ 2¼ 2½ – 3 2½ – 3
Underlying inflation 2.5 2.9 3.0 2¾ 2¾ 2½ – 3 2½ – 3

(a) Actual data to December 2006. Underlying inflation refers to the average of trimmed mean and weighted median inflation. For the forecast period, technical assumptions include A$ at US$0.78, TWI at 64, cash rate at 6.25 per cent, and WTI crude oil price at US$60 per barrel.

Sources: ABS; RBA