RDP 7901: Estimation and Statistical Evaluation of an Economic Model Attachment B

L.A. Moore

July 1979

Root mean square percentage errors in control simulation 1966(3) to 1977(3)
  Base model Model AØ Model BØ non-COSMA'd model
1 2.54 3.43 5.61 2.86
*2 .20 .24 .20 .24
3 6.35 6.46 6.48 7.02
4 9.45 9.75 10.60 12.10
5 3.16 3.89 4.83 3.36
6 3.27 3.57 6.34 3.21
7 5.05 5.31 7.14 6.46
8 5.23 5.03 5.97 6.89
9 3.26 3.68 8.40 3.52
10 .88 .82 1.31 1.06
11 .56 .55 .60 .58
12 3.40 7.84 10.33 3.28
13 7.85 22.26 16.46 7.69
14 7.51 10.28 12.91 11.11
15 7.31 6.54 7.53 8.21
16 5.09 5.12 6.63 5.39
17 27.17 27.51 22.70 3.33
18 3.85 3.91 9.98 5.61
19 12.12 16.57 17.39 14.68
20 .87 .85 .62 .88
21 3.27 6.29 5.50 4.47
22 13.96 12.47 8.82 16.39
23 4.15 4.38 12.85 5.80
24 .98 1.50 1.09 1.39
25 1.42 1.60 2.54 1.77

In these cases, the root mean square error is reported.

Model A and Model B are referred to in section 4, and correspond to the model with “star” constants and “prime” contants respectively.