RDP 7901: Estimation and Statistical Evaluation of an Economic Model Attachment D

L.A. Moore

July 1979

IMPORTS
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stoehastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) 6.783 6.768 6.783 .054
  (4) 6.786 6.798 6.812 .060
1967 (1) 6.875 6.826 6.827 .054
  (2) 6.882 6.860 6.863 .055
  (3) 6.872 6.891 6.893 .065
  (4) 6.881 6.919 6.913 .064
1968 (1) 7.036 6.958 6.951 .065
  (2) 6.981 6.999 7.006 .064
  (3) 6.988 7.020 7.028 .080
  (4) 6.975 7.034 7.040 .089
1969 (1) 6.949 7.032 7.035 .090
  (2) 6.992 7.021 7.022 .076
  (3) 7.053 7.075 7.063 .076
  (4) 7.079 7.147 7.153 .076
1970 (1) 7.061 7.157 7.149 .068
  (2) 7.099 7.152 7.141 .079
  (3) 7.095 7.158 7.143 .063
  (4) 7.109 7.163 7.159 .069
1971 (1) 7.091 7.166 7.162 .066
  (2) 7.129 7.142 7.150 .084
  (3) 7.134 7.113 7.123 .088
  (4) 7.096 7.081 7.085 .103
1972 (1) 7.055 7.011 7.013 .096
  (2) 7.013 6.950 6.940 .102
  (3) 7.012 6.933 6.938 .101
  (4) 7.075 6.923 6.921 .108
1973 (1) 7.143 6.973 6.964 .118
  (2) 7.211 7.063 7.070 .085
  (3) 7.273 7.111 7.104 .088
  (4) 7.353 7.206 7.200 .096
1974 (1) 7.408 7.330 7.333 .087
  (2) 7. 466 7.392 7.394 .070
  (3) 7.560 7.474 7.477 .072
  (4) 7.454 7.528 7.468 .086
1975 (1) 7.248 7.531 7.377 .086
  (2) 7.246 7.578 7.378 .086
  (3) 7.282 7.664 7.430 .095
  (4) 7.311 7.745 7.529 .087
PRICE OF PRODUCT
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) −.011 −.017 −.015 .009
  (4) −.004 −.013 −.010 .012
1967 (1) .007 −.006 −.003 .015
  (2) .010 .002 .004 .018
  (3) .012 .013 .016 .022
  (4) .019 .025 .026 .023
1968 (1) .037 .036 .036 .024
  (2) .044 .045 .046 .027
  (3) .047 .056 .058 .030
  (4) .047 .068 .071 .035
1969 (1) .069 .081 .083 .037
  (2) .081 .095 .095 .038
  (3) .088 .113 .112 .040
  (4) .091 .131 .131 .040
1970 (1) .110 .150 .150 .039
  (2) .131 .167 .166 .041
  (3) .132 .185 .184 .042
  (4) .139 .203 .201 .040
1971 (1) .159 .218 .217 .040
  (2) .198 .229 .229 .040
  (3) .202 .238 .237 .041
  (4) .200 .252 .252 .042
1972 (1) .230 .266 .263 .043
  (2) .261 .274 .269 .045
  (3) .274 .280 .275 .045
  (4) .286 .288 .283 .043
1973 (1) .319 .304 .299 .044
  (2) .352 .329 .324 .045
  (3) .390 .364 .360 .046
  (4) .428 .412 .405 .043
1974 (1) .458 .466 .459 .045
  (2) .499 .523 .517 .047
  (3) .556 .583 .579 .044
  (4) .596 .650 .641 .044
1975 (1) .619 .721 .691 .044
  (2) .653 .793 .724 .046
  (3) .679 .866 .750 .047
  (4) .734 .940 .777 .049
REAL PRODUCT
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) 8.533 8.534 8.539 .019
  (4) 8.556 8.555 8.558 .021
1967 (1) 8.600 8.571 8.571 .025
  (2) 8.579 8.589 6.588 .021
  (3) 8.581 6.608 8.605 .025
  (4) 8.605 8.626 8.625 .024
1968 (1) 8.592 8.641 8.644 .029
  (2) 8.630 8.656 8.657 .029
  (3) 8.650 8.669 8.670 .025
  (4) 8.704 8.683 8.680 .024
1969 (1) 8.694 6.686 8.683 .023
  (2) 8.708 8.689 8.687 .028
  (3) 8.729 8.712 8.710 .025
  (4) 8.734 8.741 8.743 .028
1970 (1) 8.757 8.750 8.752 .022
  (1) 8.776 8.755 8.749 .026
  (3) 8.779 8.768 8.763 .024
  (4) 8.758 8.780 8.780 .030
1971 (1) 8.822 8.788 8.786 .032
  (2) 8.816 8.789 8.787 .029
  (3) 8.831 8.792 8.794 .030
  (4) 8.822 8.803 8.807 .028
1972 (1) 8.839 8.819 8.824 .034
  (2) 8.858 8.833 8.838 .032
  (3) 8.864 8.844 8.846 .028
  (4) 8.873 8.861 8.862 .032
1973 (1) 8.891 8.869 8.868 .029
  (2) 8.934 8.870 8.870 .026
  (3) 8.936 8.888 8.893 .027
  (4) 8.939 8.910 8.917 .026
1974 (1) 8.970 6.925 8.932 .031
  (2) 8.962 8.941 6.944 . 026
  (3) 8.928 8.955 8.962 .028
  (4) 8.960 8.982 8.980 .027
1975 (1) 8.954 9.019 9.018 .032
  (2) 9.002 9.042 9.047 .031
  (3) 8.968 9.057 9.064 .032
  (4) 8.981 9.071 9.092 .029
WAGES
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1956 (3) −.035 −.043 −.043 .009
  (4) −.017 −.025 −.023 .013
1967 (1) −.005 −.005 −.004 .019
  (2) .017 .015 .015 .024
  (3) .032 .036 .036 .029
  (4) .039 .056 .056 .031
1968 (1) .054 .073 .075 .033
  (2) .075 .090 .095 .036
  (3) .085 .108 .113 .040
  (4) .103 .127 .130 .041
1969 (1) .133 .149 .150 .041
  (2) .154 .173 .170 .041
  (3) .169 .197 .194 .042
  (4) .190 .222 .219 .042
1970 (1) .206 .246 .244 .043
  (2) .228 .271 .268 .043
  (3) .256 .296 .295 .040
  (4) .278 .317 .318 .038
1971 (1) .310 .337 .337 .039
  (2) .349 .356 .358 .039
  (3) .374 .373 .372 .042
  (4) .390 .389 .386 .042
1972 (1) .410 .400 .395 .044
  (2) .433 .406 .400 .046
  (3) .449 .413 .408 .047
  (4) .465 .429 .424 .048
1973 (1) .491 .454 .451 .050
  (2) .529 .488 .485 .049
  (3) .567 .538 .532 .048
  (4) .601 .603 .595 .046
1974 (1) .638 .670 .662 .044
  (2) .691 .740 .734 .043
  (3) .766 .824 .820 .042
  (4) .838 .920 .873 .044
1975 (1) .882 1.014 .875 .046
  (2) .908 1.100 .876 .049
  (3) .929 1.180 .883 .053
  (4) .967 1.258 .902 .053
INTERNATIONAL RESERVES
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) 7.254 7.229 7.230 .052
  (4) 7.229 7.229 7.236 .092
1967 (1) 7.190 7.232 7.233 .115
  (2) 7.135 7.235 7.231 .143
  (3) 7.097 7.230 7.228 .155
  (4) 7.121 7.215 7.220 .169
1968 (1) 7.157 7.193 7.198 .194
  (2) 7.162 7.166 7.164 .206
  (3) 7.175 7.137 7.128 .208
  (4) 7.197 7.108 7.078 .218
1969 (1) 7.249 7.053 7.019 .214
  (2) 7.278 6.973 6.933 .247
  (3) 7.210 6.945 6.929 .240
  (3) 7.116 6.935 6.916 .257
1970 (1) 7.084 6.866 6.861 .254
  (2) 7.192 6.776 6.786 .270
  (3) 7.295 6.676 6.686 .323
  (4) 7.304 6.585 6.607 .372
1971 (1) 7.393 6.531 6.566 .431
  (2) 7.570 6.493 6.531 .447
  (3) 7.734 6.473 6.452 .524
  (4) 7.857 6.465 6.468 .534
1972 (1) 7.973 6.708 6.737 .350
  (2) 8.110 7.129 7.185 .210
  (3) 8.279 7.485 7.528 .164
  (4) 8.450 7.794 7.817 .151
1973 (1) 8.487 7.994 8.017 .141
  (2) 8.445 8.111 8.124 .140
  (3) 8.454 8.244 8.260 .134
  (4) 6.473 8.365 6.382 .135
1974 (1) 8.454 8.433 8.451 .145
  (2) 8.394 8.450 8.472 .160
  (3) 8.298 8.433 8.458 .182
  (4) 8.225 8.396 8.433 .212
1975 (1) 8.209 8.364 8.456 .228
  (2) 8.227 8.337 8.528 .223
  (3) 8.223 8.282 8.605 .219
  (4) 8.092 7.979 8.562 .241
MONEY STOCK
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) 9.320 9.318 9.319 .009
  (4) 9.337 9.343 9.345 .012
1967 (1) 9.355 9.364 9.366 .017
  (2) 9.376 9.392 9.393 .019
  (3) 9.399 9.421 9.421 .022
  (4) 9.420 9.440 9.440 .026
1968 (1) 9.435 9.454 9.453 .029
  (2) 9.454 9.476 9.476 .029
  (3) 9.476 9.503 9.502 .029
  (4) 9.491 9.524 9.520 .028
1969 (1) 9.510 9.541 9.537 .029
  (2) 9.538 9.566 9.561 .031
  (3) 9.562 9.603 9.601 .030
  (4) 9.579 9.636 9.633 .029
1970 (1) 9.595 9.656 9.654 .027
  (2) 9.608 9.673 9.671 .030
  (3) 9.618 9.694 9.690 .031
  (4) 9.630 9.713 9.710 .029
1971 (1) 9.646 9.718 9.713 .032
  (2) 9.666 9.714 9.708 .034
  (3) 9.692 9.727 9.720 .038
  (4) 9.713 9.744 9.736 .042
1972 (1) 9.734 9.756 9.748 .046
  (2) 9.763 9.775 9.769 .047
  (3) 9.810 9.817 9.810 .044
  (4) 9.871 9.875 9.868 .042
1973 (1) 9.926 9.935 9.930 .039
  (2) 9.979 10.001 9.996 .039
  (3) 10.040 10.082 10.079 .040
  (4) 10.086 10.159 10.156 .040
1974 (1) 10.115 10.216 10.214 .039
  (2) 10.137 10.263 10.261 .041
  (3) 10.140 10.321 10.318 .043
  (4) 10.161 10.393 10.393 .043
1975 (1) 10.221 10.465 10.470 .044
  (2) 10.271 10.532 10.542 .045
  (3) 10.315 10.607 10.620 .046
  (4) 10.360 10.677 10.689 .046
DOMESTIC CREDIT
Year/Quarter Actual Value Deterministic Simulation Mean Stochastic Standard Deviation
1966 (3) 9.184 9.186 9.186 .005
  (4) 9.208 9.213 9.215 .010
1967 (1) 9.232 9.237 9.238 .014
  (2) 9.264 9.269 9.269 .016
  (3) 9.294 9.302 9.301 .019
  (4) 9.315 9.326 9.323 .021
1968 (1) 9.326 9.344 9.342 .023
  (2) 9.347 9.371 9.369 .024
  (3) 9.371 9.404 9.402 .025
  (4) 9.385 9.430 9.427 .026
1969 (1) 9.399 9.454 9.451 .028
  (2) 9.428 9.488 9.484 .031
  (3) 9.462 9.531 9.527 .032
  (4) 9.490 9.567 9.562 .032
1970 (1) 9.510 9.593 9.589 .032
  (2) 9.514 9.617 9.612 .034
  (3) 9.515 9.644 9.637 .034
  (4) 9.527 9.669 9.661 .033
1971 (1) 9.534 9.676 9.665 .034
  (2) 9.534 9.674 9.662 .035
  (3 9.539 9.689 9.677 .036
  (4) 9.544 9.706 9.693 .037
1972 (1) 9.546 9.708 9.695 .042
  (2) 9.548 9.702 9.690 .046
  (3) 9.563 9.715 9.701 .047
  (4) 9.598 9.743 9.729 .048
1973 (1) 9.658 9.782 9.769 .050
  (2) 9.734 9.839 9.827 .054
  (3) 9.808 9.910 9.900 .055
  (4) 9.865 9.979 9.969 .056
1974 (1) 9.907 10.033 10.024 .058
  (2) 9.944 10.086 10.075 .060
  (3) 9.966 10.159 10.146 .062
  (4) 10.006 10.246 10.237 .061
1975 (1) 10.077 10.336 10.322 .062
  (2) 10.131 10.415 10.395 .063
  (3) 10.183 10.505 10.473 .063
  (4) 10.249 10.609 10.558 .062