Forecast Table – February 2019

This table provides additional detail on forecasts of key macroeconomic variables as at the February 2019 Statement on Monetary Policy.

Forecast Table – February 2019(a)
Percentage change over year to quarter shown
  Dec 2018 Jun 2019 Dec 2019 Jun 2020 Dec 2020 Jun 2021
Gross domestic product 2.8 2.4 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.7
Household consumption 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7
Dwelling investment 5.9 -1.7 -4.5 -5.6 -5.3 -3.2
Business investment -0.9 0.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.7
Public demand 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.4
Gross national expenditure 2.2 1.8 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.8
Imports 1.3 -0.9 1.3 2.7 3.2 3.4
Exports 5.4 1.3 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6
Real household disposable income 0.5 1.7 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3
Terms of trade 5.6 -0.6 -7.8 -6.4 -3.8 -2.1
Major trading partner (export-weighted) GDP 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8
Unemployment rate (quarterly, %) 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8
Employment 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8
Wage price index 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6
Nominal (non-farm) average earnings per hour 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0
Trimmed mean inflation 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2
Consumer price index 1.8 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.1 2.2

(a) Technical assumptions include TWI at 62, A$ at US$0.72, and Brent crude oil price at US$63 per barrel; shaded regions are historical data

Sources: ABS; RBA