RDP 2000-05: A Small Model of the Australian Macroeconomy Appendix D: Glossary and Data

Glossary

All variables are expressed in logs and multiplied by 100 except for interest rates, inflation rates, inflation expectations and the variable tariff.

pt Australian consumer prices
Inline Equation foreign consumer prices
Inline Equation foreign export prices
pmt import prices over the docks (in Australian dollars)
Inline Equation import prices adjusted for tariffs and the Balassa-Samuelson effect
Inline Equation inflation expectations, equal to the differential between nominal and indexed 10-year bond yields
πt three-year average of past inflation
rt real cash rate, defined as rt = it−(ptpt−4)
Inline Equation foreign real short term policy interest rate
st real share price accumulation index detrended using a Hodrick-Prescott filter with smoothing parameter of 1,600
θt real exchange rate (trade-weighted)
et nominal exchange rate (against the G7)
tarifft average tariff rate on Australian imports
tott terms of trade
it nominal cash rate
ut unit labour costs
yt real non-farm output
Inline Equation potential real non-farm output
Inline Equation real US output
Inline Equation OECD industrial production
oilt Australian dollar price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil per barrel

Data

The data used in the estimation were those available on 1 February 2000.

Real non-farm output

Definition: Real non-farm gross domestic product (chain volume, 1997/98 reference prices, seasonally adjusted).
Source: National Income, Expenditure and Product, ABS Cat No 5206.0

Real US output

Definition: Real US gross domestic product (chain volume, $US 1996 reference prices, seasonally adjusted).
Source: Datastream, USGDP…D

OECD industrial production

Definition: Industrial production of OECD members (constant prices, indexed to 1995=100, seasonally adjusted). Before 1995:Q1, movements of a narrower measure of industrial production have been spliced onto the series.
Source: Datastream, OCNOCIPDG 1985:Q1–1994:Q4
OCDOCIPDG 1995:Q1–1999:Q3

Nominal exchange rate

Definition: Australian dollar against a nominal GDP weighted-average of G7 currencies. Indexed to 1980 = 100.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, unpublished data

Real exchange rate

Definition: Australian dollar against a trade-weighted basket of major-trading-partner currencies adjusted by domestic and foreign consumer prices. Indexed to Mar 1985 = 100.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, unpublished data

Terms of trade

Definition: Terms of trade for goods and services. Indexed to 1997/98 = 100.
Source: National Income, Expenditure and Product, ABS Cat No 5206.0

Nominal cash rate

Definition: Prior to August 1996, cash market interbank overnight rate.
  From August 1996 onwards, cash market 11am call rate.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Table F.1

Share price accumulation index

Definition: Accumulated index for share market returns on the Australian All Ordinaries, incorporating dividend yields. Indexed to 1989/90 = 100.
Source: Datastream, TOTMKAU(RI)

Real share price accumulation index

Definition: Share price accumulation index deflated by Australian consumer price index.

Consumer price index (CPI)

Definition: Acquisitions consumer price index. Indexed to 1989/90 = 100.
Source: Consumer Price Index, ABS Cat No 6401.0

Unit labour costs

Definition: Non-farm unit labour costs per hour per wage and salary earner. Indexed to 1989/90 = 100.
  Total non-farm labour costs (wage and salary earners) per hour divided by productivity per hour in the non-farm sector.
Source: National Income, Expenditure and Product, ABS Cat No 5206.0.
  Non-wage labour costs data obtained by special request from the ABS.

Import prices

Definition: Implicit price deflator for merchandise imports, excluding fuels and lubricants, civil aircraft and Reserve Bank of Australia imports of gold. Indexed to 1989/90 = 100.
Source: National Income, Expenditure and Product, ABS Cat No 5206.0.
  Reserve Bank of Australia imports of gold data not publicly available.

Tariff rate

Definition: Customs duty receipts divided by the value of merchandise imports (excluding fuels and lubricants, civil aircraft and Reserve Bank of Australia imports of gold). Seasonally adjusted.
Source: Australian Customs Service

Foreign export prices

Definition: Nominal GDP weighted-average of G7 export price indices. Indexed to 1990 = 100.
Source: Export price indices from Datastream.

Foreign consumer prices

Definition: Geometric import-weighted average of core consumer prices of G7 countries. Calculated as the ratio of nominal and real G7 import weighted exchange rates. Indexed to 1989/90 = 100.
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, unpublished data

Foreign real interest rate

Definition: Nominal GDP weighted-average of short-term policy interest rates of the US, Germany and Japan (G3) less four-quarter-ended core inflation in each country.
Source: Interest rates: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Table F.11.
For the German repo rate prior to 1999: Datastream, FOOIRGRR.
  Core Inflation: Datastream, USCPXFDEF, JPCPXFFDF, EMESHARMF, EMCP....F

Bond market inflation expectations

Definition: Yield on the conventional Australian 10-year bond less the yield on Treasury capital indexed bonds of similar maturity.
  Before 1985:Q3, movements in the Debelle and Vickery (1997) inflation expectations series have been spliced onto this series.
Source: Conventional 10-year bond yield: Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, Table F.2
  Treasury capital indexed bond yields: unpublished data collected by Reserve Bank of Australia. Daily reading available on Reuters page RBA29.

Oil price

Definition: Australian dollar price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil per barrel. Calculated using the US dollar price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil and the AUD/USD exchange rate. Indexed to 1989/90=100.
Source: Bloomberg, nearest contract price CL1 CMDTY.