RDP 2003-12: The Real-Time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves Appendix B: Selection of Real-time Output-gap Equations

The five broad specification types for our chosen output-gap equation specifications are summarised in Table 2 in Section 3. Table B1 provides a complete listing of the specifications used for each of our 125 data vintages.

Table B1: Complete List of Output-gap Equation Specifications
Date of vintage Precise equation specification
1971:Q4 to 1978:Q1 Inline Equation
1978:Q2 to 1981:Q3 Inline Equation
1981:Q4 to 1985:Q3 Inline Equation
1985:Q4 to 1987:Q2 Inline Equation
1987:Q3 to 1989:Q1 Inline Equation
1989:Q2 to 1993:Q2 Inline Equation
1993:Q3 to 1995:Q2 Inline Equation
1995:Q3 to 2002:Q4 Inline Equation

Note: Start of sample for all regressions is 1961:Q2.