RDP 2003-12: The Real-Time Forecasting Performance of Phillips Curves References

Atkeson A and LE Ohanian (2001), ‘Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?’, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 25(1), pp 2–11.

Bean C (2003), ‘Asset prices, financial imbalances and monetary policy: are inflation targets enough?’, in T Richards and T Robinson (eds), Asset prices and monetary policy, Proceedings of a Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, pp 48–76.

Beechey M, N Bharucha, A Cagliarini, D Gruen and C Thompson (2000), ‘A small model of the Australian macroeconomy’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No 2000-05.

Bullock M, D Morris and G Stevens (1989), ‘The relationship between financial indicators and economic activity: 1968–1987’, in I Macfarlane and G Stevens (eds), Studies in money and credit, Proceedings of a Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia, Sydney, pp 53–85.

Chong YY and DF Hendry (1986), ‘Econometric evaluation of linear macro-economic models’, Review of Economic Studies, 53(4), pp 671–690.

de Brouwer G and NR Ericsson (1998), ‘Modeling inflation in Australia’, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 16(4), pp 433–449.

Diebold FX and JA Lopez (1996), ‘Forecast evaluation and combination’, in GS Maddala and CR Rao (eds), Handbook of statistics, 14, North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp 241–268.

Fisher JDM, CT Liu and R Zhou (2002), ‘When can we forecast inflation?’, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, 1Q, pp 30–42.

Foster RA (1997), Australian economic statistics 1949–50 to 1996–97, Reserve Bank of Australia Occasional Paper No 8.

Gruen D, A Pagan and C Thompson (1999), ‘The Phillips curve in Australia’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No 1999-01.

Gruen D, T Robinson and A Stone (2002), ‘Output gaps in real time: are they reliable enough to use for monetary policy?’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No 2002-06.

Holden K and DA Peel (1990), ‘On testing for unbiasedness and efficiency of forecasts’, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, 58(2), pp 120–127.

Nelson E and K Nikolov (2001), ‘UK inflation in the 1970s and 1980s: the role of output gap mismeasurement’, Bank of England Working Paper No 148.

Orphanides A, RD Porter, D Reifschneider, RJ Tetlow and F Finan (1999), ‘Errors in the measurement of the output gap and the design of monetary policy’, Federal Reserve Board Finance and Economics Discussion Series No 99-45.

Orphanides A and S van Norden (2002), ‘The unreliability of output-gap estimates in real time’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 84(4), pp 569–583.

Orphanides A and S van Norden (2003), ‘The reliability of inflation forecasts based on output gap estimates in real time’, Centre for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organizations Technical Report No 2003s-01.

Reifschneider DL, DJ Stockton and DW Wilcox (1997), ‘Econometric models and the monetary policy process’, Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, 47, pp 1–37.

Sims CA (2002), ‘The role of models and probabilities in the monetary policy process’, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, pp 1–40.

Stevens G (2001), ‘The monetary policy process at the RBA’, Speech to the Economic Society of Australia Victorian Branch, 10 October, Melbourne.

Stock JH and MW Watson (1999), ‘Forecasting inflation’, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), pp 293–335.

Stone A and S Wardrop (2002), ‘Real-time national accounts data’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper No 2002-05.

West K (2000), ‘Encompassing tests when no model is encompassing’, NBER Technical Working Paper No 256.